Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

CURRENT...TSTORMS NOW FIRING ALL ALONG EAST COAST SEABREEZE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INLAND
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BECOME
ACTIVE AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUTFLOW
COLLIONS AND SEABREEZE COLLISIONS FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.

FORECAST...MODELS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PAST SEVERAL RUNS
REGARDING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CUT-OFF LOW WILL SPIN IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE SEVERAL DAYS. MOST GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY PULLS THE REMAINS
OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE ETA/ECMWF RETREATS THE LOW WEST OVER TEXAS
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. PREFER TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WHEN LOW LIFTS OUT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

AFTER TODAY...H5 TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT...FROM -11 TODAY TO -8
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL SO TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS JUST A
BIT LOWER. BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO BE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WONT TRY TO PIN THAT DOWN AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

PRELIM CCF...
AMG BB 066/093 067/095 067 25332
SSI BB 071/088 072/089 072 25221
JAX BB 067/092 070/093 070 25332
SGJ BB 070/087 070/088 071 25332
GNV TB 066/093 068/092 068 25342
OCF TB 066/093 069/093 069 25342

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

CAMP

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-312200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR AND JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THE GREATEST HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SHASHY