Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

CAMP

#####################PREVIOUS DISCUSSION############################

CURRENTLY...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CURRENTLY OVER S AL.
INTENSE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE FL/GA/AL AREA S INTO THE GOMEX.
SOLID LINE OF STRIKES SEEN ON LIGHTNING PLOT. SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN
EFFECT THRU 00Z FOR ABOUT THE W HALF OF OUR CWA (COUNTY WARNING
AREA).

FORECAST/EXTENDED...WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO IMPENDING SVR WX.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT
TONIGHT AS GOOD WAA (WARM AIR ADVECTION) CONTINUES IN EARNEST. ALSO
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER UP A BIT IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST. FEEL
THAT WITH CONTINUING ENERGY TO OUR N AND NW...ALONG WITH INCREASING
S STREAM CIRRUS...WE PROBABLY WONT CLEAR OUT UNTIL NEXT FRONT MOVES
THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL PRODUCE THE
GREATEST COOLDOWN FOR THE AREA...SINCE WINDS BEHIND THE CURRENT
FRONTAL OCCLUSION REMAIN GENERALLY SW TO W. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT SVR
RISK HARD TONIGHT. JAX RADAR IS NOW IN SQUALL MODE & VCP 11.

WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE E COAST...AS SQUALL LINE APPEARS
TO BE SLOWING...WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING UPPER SUPPORT IS SLOW
TO MOVE AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RUNNING MORE PARALLEL TO
SQUALL LINE. 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH 3 TO 4
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.

TIMING ON SQUALL LINE BRINGS IT INTO THE W CWA BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING...AND TO THE E COAST AFTER 9 TO 10 PM. HOWEVER...THIS
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ERRATIC MOTION OF THE LINE...NOT
TO MENTION ANY BOW ECHOES. PARTIERS SHOULD KEEP APPRISED TO THE
LATEST UPDATES

MARINE...SCA WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUES.

FCSTID =   31
AMG   59  67  45  68 / 100  30  10  10
SSI   63  68  51  65 / 100  30   0  10
JAX   65  71  49  73 / 100  30   0  10
SGJ   67  70  55  69 / 100  30   0  10
GNV   64  72  50  73 / 100  30   0  10
OCF   65  73  52  73 / 100  30   0  10

.JAX...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THRU 7AM WED FOR FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THRU 7AM WED FOR GAZ132>136-149>154-GAZ162>166.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

CARROLL/CAMP/ZIBURA

FLZ020>025-030>033-036>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST NEW YEARS MORNING FOR ALL
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AIR AND AN STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL NEW
YEARS MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH COVERS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. PLEASE REFER TO THE MOST RECENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS... AND OTHER
INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BECOME IMMINENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON NEW YEARS
DAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CAMP

FLZ020-021-035-GAZ162-312215-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
419 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM...
...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 430 AND 530 PM.  AREAS AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE LIVE
OAK...JENNINGS...JASPER...AND STATENVILLE GEORGIA.  STRONG WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR.
POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY
ENCLOSED BUILDING.

MZ

FLZ022-GAZ132-149-163-312300-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.  AREAS AFFECTED
THROUGH 6 PM WILL INCLUDE DOUGLAS...PEARSON...HOMERVILLE...AND LAKE
CITY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
USE CAUTION IF DRIVING THIS EVENING.

MZ