Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

CURRENTLY...SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE GA ZONES DUE TO
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH Q-STRNY TROUGH AND VORT LOBE
ACROSS NERN FL. CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG PER GOES
SOUNDINGS. WITH PWATS AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK WOULD ONLY EXPECT ISOL
PULSE-SEV STORMS AFTN AND EVENING. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. Q-STRNY SFC RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL FL. LIGHT
WINDS ARE PROMOTING E AND W COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATION INLAND.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE IN THE ERN ZONES THIS
EVENING AS ATMOS HAS NOT BEEN TAPPED YET. THEREFORE WILL PLACE
HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SUN THROUGH TUE...RIDGE WILL CONT S OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
LIKELY DIP FURTHER S. MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ALOFT WITH 5H HIGH
PRES OVER CENTRAL GA SLOWLY SHIFTING E TO AS A TROPICAL WAVE SLIPS
UNDER RIDGE THROUGH SRN FL. MODEL PWATS DROP SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEND TO COOL AS WAVE MOVES INTO THE FL PENINSULA. WILL
KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE SCT RANGE...BUT FAVORING FL CWA DUE TO SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. BY MON AND TUE...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG-SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED...AVN SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND NRN GA. THIS SHOULD HELP POOL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS.

MARINE...BUOY 41008 SW 6G8 KT WITH SEAS 2 FT. BUOY 41012 HAS SW 6G8
KT SEAS 2.6 FT. BOTH SEAS PRIMARILY ESE SWELLS WITH PERIODS AROUND
8-9 SEC. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ANTICIPATE
LITTLE CHANGE.

PRELIM...
AMG BB 073/092 074/093 073 02343
SSI BB 075/090 075/090 075 02443
JAX BT 073/092 074/091 073 02453
SGJ BT 074/089 075/089 074 02553
GNV BT 072/091 073/091 073 02353
OCF BT 072/091 073/090 073 02353=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

SHASHY

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-272130-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1229 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOVEMENT OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...ALTHOUGH A SLOWER...
MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...THEREFORE MARINERS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES.

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY NEAR INTERACTIONS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED
TO REPORT INCIDENTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT

FLZ023>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ153-154-165-166-280000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 8 PM OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND MOST OF NORTH FLORIDA EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ADDITIONALLY
STRONG STORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER ALL ALACHUA...GILCHRIST AND
MARION COUNTIES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ADDITIONALLY...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR AREAS. INTERESTS IN THE
STATEMENT AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK