Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

AFTN/TONIGHT...TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED GOOD INSTABILITY WITH LI
IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE AND MODIFIED CAPES AOA 3000J/KG. FLOW AT SFC
AND ALOFT A BIT WEAK FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WX BUT WILL
BE MONITORING CLOSELY FOR ANY SEVERE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL STILL BACK OVER SE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS THAT DO REMAIN WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
INITIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. THE RESULTING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS MOST PLACES TONIGHT FOR PRECIP MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST LATE.

FORECAST...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO S GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY BUT APPEARS TO
WASH OUT BEFORE MOVING INTO FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FOR
WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

MARINE...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WED WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PRELIM

AMG 52/73/45/74 6000
SSI 58/74/49/67 7000
JAX 58/75/47/74 6100
SGJ 63/73/52/72 6200
GNV 61/77/48/78 5100
OCF 62/79/48/78 5100 25

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

CAMP/CARROLL/TRABERT

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN COMBINATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEABREEZES FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE ATLANTIC. STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AND HAIL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEABREEZES. MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL