Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CST SAT MAR 16 2002

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE
NW PORTION OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO STALL TODAY...AND BASICALLY WAVE BACK AND FORTH OVER SOUTHERN
TN/NORTHERN MS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SLOW MOVING FRONT IS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PRETTY GOOD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. PRETTY GOOD TEMP RANGE TOO...WITH LOWER 70S
SOUTH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY TODAY. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY WILL HAVE  DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S...TEMPS UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP
TO FOCUS ON. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE GOOD TODAY WITH CAPES IN THE
WARM SECTOR RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIS WILL RANGE FROM -2 TO -5 IN THE SAME REGION. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO SPECIFIC UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

STALLED BOUNDARY WILL WAVE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT FROM THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER FLOW. BY LATE
SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH OF THE CWFA. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THE ENTIRE CWFA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY...COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE PRETTY HARD TO PIN DOWN AS EVERYTHING DEPENDS
ON THE PLACEMENT OF STALLED/WAVY BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPS. MAV
GUIDANCE IS A COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS...AND WITH DENSE CLOUD
COVER WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE NUMBERS SEEM TO COME MORE
IN LINE IN LATER PERIODS...AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM A COMPROMISE.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK TOO COOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WILL END UP
GOING CLOSER TO MOS IN THE FIRST PERIOD. NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR IN
LATTER PERIODS...AND WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE. POPS...WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS WILL PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT
FOCUS FOR PRECIP. IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVING BACK AND FORTH...WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRELIM NUMBERS
(POPS VERY SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE CHANGES)
JAN 77/62/76/60/76 8557
MEI 80/63/79/59/78 6457

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. THERE IS
A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MILES AN HOUR...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WITH EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI. OVERNIGHT
...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
JUST OFF THE EARTHS SURFACE...AN APPROACHING POCKET OF DRY AIR
AROUND 10000 FEET...AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...THEN BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
 WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

...FLOODING...
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.  WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE INCH MAY
OCCUR.	THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1009 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1005 PM    BONITA                    LA   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/15/02   MOREHOUSE                      NWS TRAINED SPOTTER
                                          REPORTED QUARTER SIZE
                                          HAIL.