Severe Thunderstorm Warning 448, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

AIR MASS CONTINUES VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST DYNAMICS LOCATED
ERN ZONES WHERE LOWLEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEST. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DIURNAL.

UPPER TROUGHING INCREASING SLIGHTLY WED. SHORTWAVE SLIPS WWD
UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE...MOVING ACROSS MS COAST INTO SRN LA. WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOTED OVER REGION
TOMORROW. MID/UPPER HEIGHTS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE SO EXPECT WEAK
CAPPING EFFECTS TO LINGER NRN ZONES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NRN
AREAS AND CHC POPS SRN AREAS WITH ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FOR
WED NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER LA/WRN MS BY THU MORNING WITH WEAK
SHEAR ZONE SUGGESTED ACROSS THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHT REMAIN HIGH.
WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ZONES WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT. TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE W AND UPPER TROUGHING DIMINISHES FOR FRI AFOR FORECAST AREA. NO
SURFACE FORCING NOTED SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON ADN EVENING.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TRACK THAT HAS
PERSISTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DROPS THIS WAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO NRN AREAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. JET MAX REMAINS TO THE NORTH BUT
WILL SEE RIGHT REAR JET QUAD CLOSE ENOUGH TO EFFECT FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES. UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY...WEAKENING TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY
SHIFTS TO THE E BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 72/93/73/92 2223
MEI 71/93/72/92 2223

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...COMBINE THAT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT...AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 90S. INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JONESVILLE LOUISIANA TO JACKSON TO MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 7
PM...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM
TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A RAYVILLE TO VICKSBURG TO CANTON
TO KOSCIUSKO TO EUPORA LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNELL...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0307 PM    3S NEWTON                 MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/20/02   NEWTON