Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES
AND STRENGTH OF RIDGING FROM THE N. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIFFER ON
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF WAVES MOVING OVER REGION BENEATH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. WATER VAPOR PIX SHOW DEFINED
SHORTWAVES IN FLOW...MORE IN LINE WITH AVN THAN MORE ILL DEFINED
ETA...SO WILL FOLLOW AVN SOLUTION.

SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS REGION TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL END DURING THE EVENING. NEXT
WAVE FORECAST ACROSS SE MS CORNER TOMORROW BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO JET
SUPPORT. UPPER TROF DEVELOPING TO THE E BECOMES MORE DEFINED SUNDAY
AS CENTER OF BROAD TROF SHIFTS INTO THE NRN GULF. ANOTHER WAVE TO
PUSH INTO ERN ZONES SUNDAY ABD CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SE COUNTIES TO LIFT SLOWLY
NWD AND 850 MB LOW SHIFTS WWD INTO ERN ZONES BY 00Z MON.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE FIELD WITH
MEAN RH VALUES LESS THAN 40 PERCENT AND PRECIPTABLE WATER BELOW 1.5
INCHES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST CENTRAL AND SRN POPS BUT SHOULD SEE MORE HIT AND MISS
CONVECTION RATHER THAN LARGE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ANOTHER VORT LOBE IS SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES AND THE 850 MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
EAST CENTRAL MS BY MONDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FALT UPPER TROUGH TO BE POSITIONED FROM TX COAST TO FL PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOSITURE FIELDS AND AN 850 MB LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RETURN TO 2 INCHES AND
ABOVE SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE ALL OF REGION.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO S AND W WITH TIME AND WILL RETURN TO MORE OF
A SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION REGIME WITH ISOLATED CELLS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL BE SRN AREAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING HAMPERS CONVECTION N.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 72/94/71/93/73 1213
MEI 71/93/70/92/72 1324

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA...STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. ANY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUST TO
60 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM...AND DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.