Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.

GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-55 THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THAT REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL DRAMATICALLY FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS AT
ISSUANCE TIME. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED A EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TO REFLECT THOSE TRENDS.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE SE ON TUE AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OUR PESKY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL GET SQUEEZED AS
THIS RIDGE MOVES IN. A LARGE PIECE OF THIS LOW WILL SHIFT INTO
TX...WHILE THE REST OF IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. BEST MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH ALL OF THIS...A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THU WILL BE ON TAP. WILL NOT TOTALLY
REMOVE POPS...AND WILL HAVE TO MENTION AT LEAST 10/20 PERCENT
THROUGH THU. ETA TRIES TO INDICATE THAT WE WILL MIX SFC DEW PTS TO
THE LOWER 60S ON WED/THU. FEEL THIS IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY
WELL...AS THERE IS QUIET A BIT OF GROUND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SFC
DEW PTS TO REMAIN IN THE 68 TO 71 RANGE. THIS SFC MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

RIDGE WEAKENS FOR FRI AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRI/SAT...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED SCT TSRAS. BY SUN...TROUGH WANTS TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN AS A
WEAK RIDGE MAKES A COMEBACK. WILL MENTION ISOLATED CHANCES SUN/MON.

JAN 72/92/73/95/73 ?20-
MEI 71/93/71/95/71 820-

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 10 PM.

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE  AND INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...DITCHES AND CULVERTS MAY OCCUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION AND AVOID AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THE ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.