Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Jackson, MS

July 12, 2002Carroll County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2002, 1:49 PM CDT for Carroll County, Mississippi. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2002, 1:49 PM CDT (18:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2002, 2:20 PM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Whole counties

County Carroll County, MS

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1393 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 695 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

204 
WUUS54 KJAN 121849
SVRJAN
MSC015-121920-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 220 PM CDT

* AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
     A   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF CARROLLTON....MOVING   
     SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL...
  BE NEAR CARROLLTON AT 155 PM CDT

DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 3:45 AM CDT, 10 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 3:45 AM CDT, 10 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES INTO THE
OZARKS TODAY AND NEAR THE ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING WWD
ON SUNDAY INTO OKLAHOMA.

FORECAST BOILS DOWN TO 4 PRIMARY FACTORS - A JUICY AIRMASS WITH
WIDESPREAD 2-2.2 PRECIPITABLE WATER...DIURNAL HEATING TO GET
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS GOING...A NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE...AND
APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THINGS FROM THE
NW. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL VORT CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF BEGINS
LIFTING TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND TODAY AND INTO SERN GA SATURDAY. ON
THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MO INTO THE TN VALLEY
SHOULD SAG SWD TODAY. THE 06Z MESO-ETA HOLDS BEST THETA-E AIR ALONG
THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON NOSING EWD INTO CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING.
THE AVN ESSENTIALLY KEEPS A W-E THETA E RIDGE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
REGION OF SRN MS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...POPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING CROSSING THE UPPER DELTA INTO
NERN MS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SERVE TO SET UP TODAYS INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 82. THEN LATER TODAY...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCH 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

IN THE EXTENDED...A STALLED FRONT HANGS UP ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PULLING BACK N ON
MONDAY.  UPPER RIDGING THEN QUICKLY REBUILDS FROM THE EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
SURFACE FRONT. TREND FOR MINIMAL DIURNAL POPS LOOKS GOOD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NO CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED ARE PLANNED.

JAN  91/72 89/73 87 75645
MEI  90/72 90/73 87 75645

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 11:21 AM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    SUNRISE                   MS   WIND DAMAGE
07/12/02   LEAKE                          E.O.C REPORTED TREES
                                          BLOWN DOWN.

0400 PM    PULASKI                   MS   WIND DAMAGE
07/12/02   SCOTT                          S.O. REPORTED NUMEROUS
                                          TREES DOWN.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 1:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Sunflower	90 min
Jul 12, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leflore	43 min
Jul 12, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Sunflower	30 min
Jul 12, 3:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Oktibbeha	43 min
Jul 12, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Marion	30 min
Jul 12, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Simpson, Smith	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.