Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2002

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE.

AT THE 500 MB LEVEL...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE WITH A 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DAKOTAS
BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK FRONT SHOULD PUSH AS FAR
SOUTH AS TENNESSEE WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
BOUNDARY COULD HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER INTERESTING
FEATURE IS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
WOULD BE THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. HOWEVER...SO
FAR IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS PATH WOULD MEAN THE SYSTEM
SHOULD HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK.

FOR POPS...AT THIS POINT BELIEVE TUESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER WILL STILL GO WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THEN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS...INTO THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED WITH LOWS OF 70 TO 75
AND HIGHS OF 90 TO 95 THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST AVN EXTENDED MODEL FORECAST. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH MEANS SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

JAN   72  94  73  93/  10  30  10  30
MEI   71  94  71  94/  10  30  10  30

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN TWO AREAS...IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST OVER THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WESTWARD.
 LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
EVENING...WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME LATER
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.