Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US INTO NE
TEXAS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MSAS LIS
-7/-8 VALUES OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH -9/-10 VALUES OVER SOUTH MS.
THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HELPED TEMPS REACH THE LOWER 80S EARLY
AND NEAR 90 SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE LINE...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING FAIRLY
SLOWLY. HEAVY RAIN WAS DEVELOPING OVER LA PARISHES WITH STREET
FLOODING BEING REPORTED. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT...RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH ACTIVITY
OVER DELTA BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GROUPS TONIGHT.
HEATING HAS BEEN THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SOME WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

THE SYSTEM OVER SE LA HAS REMAINED ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE MERGING WITH THE FRONT AND MOVING EAST...IT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WILL USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND WIND. WILL GO WITH
CAUTION ON AREA LAKES FOR SATURDAY. WITH COOL NORTH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MODELS AGREE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL...BUT PLEASANT WITH EVERYTHING
CLEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVN HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SINKING
INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE ROTATING BEHIND IT ON MONDAY. EXTENDED
AVN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ALSO...BUT HOLDING OFF THE RAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE
WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AND MILD.

THANKS MOB FOR COORDINATION.

JAN 59/71/45/76/47 7000
MEI 58/70/44/75/45 5000

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS UPWARDS TO 70 MPH WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL TO NICKEL SIZED BEING A LESSER THREAT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD...SEVERE STORMS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY 6 PM.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT...IF
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CHANGE AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1136 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS UPWARDS TO 70 MPH WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL TO NICKEL SIZED BEING A LESSER THREAT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD...SEVERE STORMS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY 6 PM.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT...IF
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CHANGE AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES.

...FLOODING...
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES IN
SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING
ON ROADWAYS AND EVEN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ANY
SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD BE AFFECTED BY RUN-OFF AS WELL
WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
144 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    4N TAYLORSVILLE           MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/17/02   SMITH                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM    2N PRENTISS               MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/02   JEFFERSON DAVIS                LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.