Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
220 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

MSAS SURFACE LI HAS A -5 BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING AND
IT HAS SHIFTED TO NORTHERN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED TO -8.
THE AVN SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING ALONG INTERSTATE 20 AND THE META IS
GENERALLY IN  AGREEMENT. ALSO THE ETA HAS LL WINDS UP TO ABOUT 40
OVER THE DELTA AROUND 18Z. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
NORTHERN GROUP AND ADD TO CENTRAL GROUP. GOOD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY MENTION
ISOLATED POPS SOUTH AND LEAVE SEVERE OUT OF EASTERN GROUPS. ALTHOUGH
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP AND THE INSTABILITY IS BEST ALONG THE RIVER. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE RAIN FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GROUPS FRIDAY...WITH FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE
PLEASANT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM AIR BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH TEMPS REACHING 90 AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN MONDAY AND CLEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED AVN SHOWS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AND CLEAR
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WILL USE A BLEND OF EVERYTHING FOR TEMPS AND WINDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 65/83/65/90/66 33000
MEI 63/82/64/90/64 33000

.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE...LOUISIANA TO
VICKSBURG TO JACKSON...MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO
CARTHAGE TO JACKSON LINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO
JACKSON TO MERIDIAN...MISSISSIPPI.

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO
OPERATORS IN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...FLOODING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE WILL OCCUR THROUGH AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF A LAKE PROVIDENCE...LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY TO
CANTON TO MACON...MISSISSIPPI LINE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE...LOUISIANA TO
VICKSBURG TO JACKSON...MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO
CARTHAGE TO JACKSON LINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO
JACKSON TO MERIDIAN...MISSISSIPPI.

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO
OPERATORS IN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...FLOODING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LAKE PROVIDENCE...LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY TO CANTON
TO MACON...MISSISSIPPI LINE. WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS...SOME PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.