Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002
CORRECTED CITY WORDING FOR PARAGRAPH ABOUT SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT

A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT THIS FAR
SOUTH.

MOST INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG WINTER FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST AVN AND ETA MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
LATEST RUC SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WEST OF A
STARKVILLE TO JACKSON TO BROOKHAVEN LINE. A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL AND RAPIDLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSEST TO AVN GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.

EXTENDED (MON - THURS)...THE LATEST MRF RUN IS FORECASTING A LOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

JAN   47/51/28/56 9000
MEI   50/53/27/56 9100

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CST THU JAN 31 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE FROM ABOUT 3 PM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
GREATEST RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A EUPORA TO BRANDON TO A
MONTICELLO LINE.

THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME MOST UNSTABLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIE CLOSE TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.  AS THE SQUALL LINE RUNS
INTO THIS AIRMASS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK
INTENSITY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.  ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE COULD ALSO
ROTATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR A TORNADO.

THE OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE MARCHES THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.