Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002

SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN SECTION OF FORECAST AREA SHOWING VERY
SLOW SWD DRIFT. SLOWER ETA LOOKS BETTER ON FRONTAL POSITION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWERS BOUNDARY NEAR HATTIESBURG AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MOVING IT S OF AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE NOTED ON
SATELLITE PIX TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SO WILL GO
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT. AIR MASS
UNSTABLE S OF BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THAT AREA. CONVECTION TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE
THAT SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
UPPER DIVERGENCE NRN ZONES. LIMITING FACTOR ACCORDING TO MODELS WILL
BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AVN REMAINS DRY BUT ETA INCREASES MEAN RH
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SRN ZONES. SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE NEAR NATCHEZ
TO QUITMAN LINE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE S TO
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOS POPS VERY LOW FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES.

BOUNDARY SHIFTS NWD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW ALL OF
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WILL KEEP CURRENT VERY LOW POPS DUE TO BOUNDARY MOVEMENT BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING NOTED. AREA TO BE IN WARM SECTOR MONDAY
WITH A FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WILL REMAIN IN WARM
SECTOR THROUGH WED WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK UPPER
FORCING. NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THU. BOUNDARY
HANGS UP IN VICINITY OF SRN ZONES FRI WITH BEST MOISTURE FORECAST TO
NORTH OF FRONT. MODELS SHOW RETURN TO WARM SECTOR SATURDAY SO WILL
LEAVE BEGINNING OF WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW.

JAN 64/75/64/88 -21-
MEI 64/75/64/87 121-

.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
256 PM CDT SAT MAY 04 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY BE CONFINED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO HAZLEHURST TO
HARRISONBURG...LOUISIANA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
STORMS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 04 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO
HAZLEHURST TO HARRISONBURG...LOUISIANA. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.