Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT MON APR 8 2002

FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER DYING DOWN AND EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.

EARLY MORNING MCS HAS ABOUT ENDED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG I-59.
MOST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
RANGE EXCEPT LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN NERN LA. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO
PUSH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE COUPLET(300-850MB) MOVES UP THE MS RIVER FROM 18Z TO 03Z.
UNDER C-11 WILL SHORTEN WORDING SOME ALSO BY REMOVING ASSUMED
CATEGORICAL POPS AT LEAST IN FIRST PERIOD.

CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...EARLY ONSET OF RAIN HAS STABILIZED
AIRMASS TEMPORARILY HOWEVER 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
400(META) TO 600(RUC) M2/S2 STILL IN TACT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MEAN MOSTLY LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS
MOVE NE ACROSS THE RAIN-COOLED DOME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD HEAVY RAINS FOR SERN
PORTIONS TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND FLOOD WATCH SEWD FOR TONIGHT.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 070/062 075/058 075 +86-0
MEI 071/061 073/056 075 88710

.JAN...
AR...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AR ZONES.
LA....FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY IN NORTHEAST
LA ZONES
MS...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ALL THE KJAN MS ZONES. FLOOD WATCH
FOR TODAY FOR ALL KJAN ZONES ALONG AND WEST OF EUPORA TO KOSCIUSKO
TO BRANDON TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
119 PM CDT MON APR 08 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO YAZOO CITY TO
VICKSBURG LINE. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE A
THREAT OVER THIS AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA TO BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM EUPORA TO KOSCIUSKO TO BRANDON TO BROOKHAVEN. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EAST OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...STRONG STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PEOPLE LIVING IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS OR STREAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A WEST
POINT TO RALEIGH TO COLUMBIA LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING
AREA LAKES AND RIVERS TO REMAIN CHOPPY. WITH WINDS STEADY FROM 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE...CAUTION IS ADVISED.
CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED FOR THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST...WEST ROADWAYS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.