Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EST TUE JUN 4 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES LIE IN PCPN CHCS NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND HIGH
TEMPS TODAY.

6Z SFC MAP HAS WARM FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLED OUT FROM JUST NORTH
OF PIA...TO BETWEEN GUS AND LAF. THIS IS THE RESULT OF CONVECTION
FROM THE PAST EVENING AND WHAT IS OCCURRING ATTM. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING BULK OF THE MCS NORTH OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS....NORTHERN 2 TO
3 TIERS OF COUNTIES COULD GET CLIPPED. LIKELY POPS WILL COVER
THIS FOR NOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DRY START EXPECTED TO THE DAY.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PICK UP SPEED AND SHOOT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWA...STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR N IN/EXT SW LWR MI. MUCH
OF CENTRAL IL AND IN REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE WARM
SECTOR YESTERDAY AND THINK THIS IS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY. NORTHERN GROUPS COULD BE A BIT TRICKER DEPENDING ON EXACT
FRONTAL POSITION. WILL BE BUMPING TEMPS UP IN ALL GROUPS WITH LOWER
90S IN THE SOUTH TRENDING TOWARDS MID 80S IN THE NORTH. RECORDS LOOK
TO BE SAFE TODAY...WITH FWA RECORD AT 96 AND SBN AT 93. LOWS IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR PCPN CHCS...EXPECT LITTLE ACTIVITY (OTHER THAN WHAT WAS
NOTED ABOVE) UNTIL AFTN WHEN MAX TEMP REACHED. H7 TEMPS VARY BY MODEL
WITH STG CAP INDICATED ON AVN(+9 C) AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON ETA(+6 C).
BY THIS TIME...MODELS AGREE ON MODERATE TO STG INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WITH LIS -3 TO -7 AND CAPES 1500-2500. ANY STORMS THAT DO POP WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. COMPLICATING
FACTOR WILL BE DECENT SHORTWAVE SET TO ENTER THE NW CWA DURING THE
AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP WITH CURRENT POP SET-UP
FOR TODAY...BUT PLACE EMPHASIS ON AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE
NUMBERS KEEP LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVER
NIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SVR OUT OF
ZONES...BUT PLACE EMPHASIS ON RISKS IN MORNING HWO.

LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS...WITH THINGS
DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREE COOLER AND
WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDS NGT AND THURS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
FEW CHANGES MADE. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS INTO NEXT CATEGORY FOR FRI AND
SAT AS AVN H8 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...
NEAR NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

.IWX...NONE.

FISHER/LASHLEY

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-050015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1113 AM EST TUE JUN 4 2002

THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
OHIO WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...PROVIDING THE CHANCE TO STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE THAT INHIBITED STORM FORMATION
YESTERDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE DECREASED...PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM FORMATION. THE MAIN SEVERE
HAZARD NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER EXTREME LOWER MICHIGAN IS LARGE
HAIL...WHILE THE HAZARDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INCLUDE BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SKIP