Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS IL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN CHC THROUGH TGNT INTO WED. AS FRONT CREEPS CLOSER TO
IL...WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TSRA INITIATION.

ONGOING PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CEN IL THIS EVE WITH HVY
RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUING.  SO WILL ADD HVY RAIN WORDING TO THE
ZONES. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PCPN AFTER THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
...WITH ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE TO REDEVELOP IN NRN MO LATE TNGT.

MODELS SLOW DOWN FRONTAL MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...AS
BOUNDARY GOES PARRELLEL TO THE UPR LVL FLOW. SO WILL CONTINUE LKLY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TRAINING ECHOS ALONG THE WEST-EAST FRONT WILL
CONTINUE HVY RAIN THREAT...SO WILL KEEP THIS GOING ALSO.

FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU...FROM
GENERALLY STL TO IND.  WILL MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THU FORECAST AS
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES
OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING THE
HEAVIEST QPF WITH ETA FURTHER NORTH...BUT BOTH POINT TO A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RAIN.  SO WILL CHANGE THE
FORECAST DRAMACTICALLY FOR THU.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...UPR LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS SWINGS ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI...DEEPENING THE UPR LVL PATTERN TO MORE OF A NW FLOW
REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WRAPAROUND PCPN ON FRI..BEFORE
THINGS DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FOR SAT.  NW FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW IN THE GRT
LKS.   SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN FOR SUN-TUES.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI TT 071/081 062/077 059 22666
PIA TT 070/081 061/076 057 22766
DEC TT 071/081 061/078 059 22666
CMI TT 071/081 061/078 059 22666
MTO TT 071/083 061/079 060 22666
LWV TT 071/084 061/081 062 22666

.ILX...NONE.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111715-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-72 AND I-70. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

MILLER