Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FCST AREA TONIGHT, WITH A RELATIVELY COOL
AIRMASS ABOUT 18 HOURS BEHIND IT. H8 TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE
RANGING FROM 15 OVER THE SW TO 11 IN THE NE. THIS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRESPONDING WED NIGHT TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S.
MODELS HAVENT BEEN THIS COOL IN QUITE SOME TIME, AND THIS IS ABOUT
7-8 DEGREES LESS THAN THIS RUN YESTERDAY. AM CONCERNED THAT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND OVERNIGHT TO GET THIS COLD...BUT COLD AIR SINKS
AND THERES A GOOD 25-30KT JETLET AT 925 MB TO BRING IN THE CAA.
LOOKING AT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RH, THERE SHOULDNT BE MUCH TO
HAMPER THE COLD AIR WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS, POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA.

AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AFTER INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN IS KILLING THE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS WONT LAST THAT LONG AND I DO EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT HAVENT DECIDED HOW
MUCH. RIGHT NOW IM GOING TO GO WITH SCATTERED OR CHANCE WORDING AND
TRY TO ADD A LITTLE TIMING. NE FLOW ON WED SHOULD HELP FOR A NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S, CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

ON THE EXTENDED...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED/UNRESOLVED PATTERN OVER OHVLY. A
NUMBER OF MODELS ARE COMING IN WITH DIFFERENT AND YET PLAUSIBLE
SOLUTIONS. SPAGHETTI PLOTS AT H5 ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIANCE OVER
THE REGION ON THE EXTENDED SO A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS STILL
SEEM POSSIBLE.

GENERALLY, H5 TROF IS EXPECTED OVER FCST AREA FROM THE GTLKS TO
ARKLATX REGIONS. YESTERDAYS FCST SETTLED ON A MORE PRONOUNCED H5
LOW DROPPING FROM MO TO LA ON FRI AND SAT, BUT NEW RUNS SEEM TO BE
SHOWING MORE ENERGY APPROACHING FCST AREA AND REMOVING IT FROM THIS
REGION. THIS WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE SFC FRONT AND INVERTED TROF
PROGGED TO BE STRETCHED FROM SDF TO DAY AND ENCHANCE THE THREAT FOR
RAIN, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AM NOT POSITIVE ON WHICH WILL ACTUALLY PAN OUT, BUT CURRENT FCST HAS
POPS OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IM GOING TO
CONTINUE THE TREND.

THE SFC FRONT CONNECTED WITH THE LOW OVER CANADA DOESNT SEEM TO BE
AS PRONOUNCED ON THIS MODEL RUN, BUT IT DOES AMPLIFY THE LOW COMING
FROM THE MS VLY TOWARDS THE OHVLY. IN OTHER WORDS, SAME FORECAST FOR
DIFFERENT CAUSES. EXPECT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DURING THE
DAY AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S AT NIGHT, WITH THE THOUGHT THAT
AIRMASS WILL START A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. DONT EXPECT TO
PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S LIKE I DID YESTERDAY - LOW AND MID 80S
SHOULD SUFFICE.

.ILN...NONE.

FRANKS