Special Marine Warning 9, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2002

ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO GOOD AMT OF
HEATING EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A SVR
TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING THE SEABREEZE
MAY ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING.

VERY WEAK CAA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS OLD COLD FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE REGION. SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS FEATURE VARIES
BETWEEN MODELS. THE AVN SHOWS THE BEST UVV/S ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT
WAVE OVERNIGHT...WHEREAS THE ETA HAS IT OCCURRING SAT MORNING INTO
EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. DUE TO LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST.

SOME WAA DEVELOPS LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. ERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT
10-15 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP INTO SAT
EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.

SW FLOW DEVELOPS SUN...WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP WELL INTO THE 80S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES UNDER FAIR
SKIES.

CWF: SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE FROM N TO S AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG THE NRN WATERS. E FLOW FOR SAT...THEN AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES N WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON SUN. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON
NRN WATERS JUST BELOW SCSEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION MHX.

FCSTID = 36
ILM   67  76  63  85 /  40  50  20  10
LBT   65  77  62  86 /  40  50  20  10
FLO   67  77  63  88 /  40  50  20  10
MYR   68  73  65  81 /  40  50  20  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: JAQ/RAN
MARINE: JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    3 S WILMINGTON            NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/10/02   NEW HANOVER                    NEAR MONKEY JUNCTION
                                          REPORTED BY 911

0255 PM    3 S WILMINGTON            NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/02   NEW HANOVER                    NEAR MONKEY JUNCTION
                                          REPORTED BY 911

0415 PM    5 SW SOCIETY HILL         SC   59 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/10/02   DARLINGTON                     REPORTED BY KUDG AWOS AT
                                          DARLINGTON JETPORT

TM

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