Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TIL 700 PM.

ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. MSAS INDICATING STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG COAST
WITH A MUCH WEAKER MAXIMA DOWN AROUND CAE.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE MAY
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION AND SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POP. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD.
AVN HAS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...NEAR 40 KT. COULD BE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE BUT LARGE HAIL MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH WET BULB ZEROS
NEAR 10000 FT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS NOT LOOKING AS IF
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS WITH DEEP WEST OR WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DECENT OMEGA AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS A SMALL POP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RIDGING
BACK TO THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE: SEAS 2 TO 4 FT AND BUOYS INDICATING SOUTHWEST WIND 15 KT.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIND AND SEAS TO BREECH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
WILL MENTION HIGHER WIND AND SEAS IN THUNDERSTORMS. WIND COMING
AROUND TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 27
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

ILM  72 89 64 87 /  60 10  0 10
LBT  68 89 61 87 /  30 10  0 10
FLO  68 90 61 88 /  30 10  0 10
MYR  72 86 65 86 /  60 10  0 10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

DIGIORGI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
250 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    15 E ELIZABETHTOWN        NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/14/02   BLADEN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
302 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    BLADENBORO                NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/02   BLADEN                         TREE DOWNREPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0255 PM    KELLY                     NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/14/02   BLADEN                         TREES DOWN HIWAY
                                          53/210REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
342 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM    MURRELLS INLET            SC   55-60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/14/02   GEORGETOWN                     HEAVY RAIN VISIBILITY
                                          ESTIMATED AT 1/10 MILE
                                          WINDS GUSTS
                                          ESTIMATEDREPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTERS

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