Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS.
GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT. EVENTHO DO HAVE
WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE...VERY WEAK 5H SHEARED VORT...AND SFC TROF
MOVES TO THE COAST. 5H TEMPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
-4 TO -5. DAYTIME HEATING IS LACKING WHICH HAS BEEN THE CATALYST.
WILL ONLY GO WITH 20-30 OVERNIGHT POPS. FRONTAL BNDRY TO DROP S ON
SUN AND STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BY SUN NIGHT THRU MON
BEFORE LIFTING BACK N BY TUE. NOT MUCH UPPER DYNAMICS OTHER THAN
WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS AND EXTEND
IT INTO SUN NIGHT. UPPER DUYNAMICS SPINNING ARND UPPER LOW IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY MON INTO TUE...TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT TO WHAT DEGREE ITS IMPACT ON THE FA. HOWEVER ENUF TO
WARRANT 40-50 POPS FOR MON THRU MIDWEEK BEFORE RDGING FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC TAKES CHARGE..THEN BACK TO 20-30 AT TEH END OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPS...1 MORE DAY IN THE 90 TO 95 RANGE...MAKING HI VALUES 100-105.
WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...AND TWEAK GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY. CLDS ANBD PCPN TO LIMIT MAXES MON THRU MIDWEEK.

CWF...SFC TROF PUSHES TO AND OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUN.
WIND DIR BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS A RESULT. FRNTL BNDRY TO MAKE IT
TO THE NRTHERN WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT AND STALL. WILL SPLIT AT CAPE
FEAR FOR NOW. FRNT LIFTS BACK TO THE N BY TUE. SOUTH WIND DIR
BECOMES PREDOMINATE. AS ATL RDGING BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE WIND
BECOMES SE-S. MODELS INDICATE DECENT PG LATE MON NIGHT INTO ERLY WED
AND WILL REFLECT WITH 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
FCSTID = 11
KILM  77 93 75 85 /  20 30 30 50
KLBT  75 92 71 84 /  20 30 30 50
KFLO  76 93 72 85 /  20 30 30 50
KMYR  78 90 76 85 /  20 30 30 50

.ILM...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY NCZ087-096-097-099>101.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046.

RALF

NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-251115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...REACHING A
ELIZABETHTOWN TO FAIRMONT TO MARION TO EFFINGHAM LINE BETWEEN 745
AND 815 PM. THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
MR

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-250115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF WALLACE...TO
ELIZABETHTOWN...TO FAIR BLUFF...TO MARION...TO EFFINGHAM...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST REACHING A MAPLE HILL...TO
BURGAW...TO TABOR CITY...TO PAMPLICO LINE BETWEEN 845 PM AND 915 PM.
THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT AND INTENSE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT UP TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MR