Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2002

TSTMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY
AMPLE MSTR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WHILE A TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE
MID-ATLC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION (ESP INLAND) AS THIS FEATURE EVOLVES...AND COUPLED
W/ WEAK DIFL PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD BE EFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCT STORMS
SUN AND MON. COVERAGE WOULD BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING
TIME FRAME.

VORT ACROSS CURRENTLY ACROSS TN/KY WILL PASS N OF HERE LATER TONIGHT
AND SUN...HOWEVER LOBE MAY AFFECT THE FA DURING THAT TIME SO WILL
HOLD SLIGHT CHANCES RAFL OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE FLOW BACKS ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE SO WILL LIKELY GO 10%
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE POPS SUN AND SUN EVE. VORT WILL BE OFF THE NC
COAST BY MON...HOWEVER HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY 30% MON. IN THE NEAR TERM FOR TEMPS
BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST. EXPECT SKIES WILL VARY FROM PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED TUE THROUGH SAT: PROBLEMS IN THE EXTENDED ARE FOCUSED
AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING S INTO THE CAROLINAS.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK AND WILL BE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS SHOWING AN ATYPICALLY
AMPLIFIED TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EVOLVING ACROSS THE ERN UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEKEND. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...BUT W/ THE
UPPER RIDGE MOSTLY OFF THE EAST COAST WOULD EXPECT THE RETURN OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE LEAST. AS FAR AS THE FCST GOES...WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS UP TO TUE...SLIGHT CHANCE WED...DRY THU/FRI THEN
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE SAT.

MARINE: SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU WED. SPEEDS VARY 10-20KTS
DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY AND STRENGTH OF PIEDMONT TROF. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN WATERS WED. ON THE
GFS THE PATTERN TO THE ISOBARS BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGEST A QUICK
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT...BUT ONE MUST REMEMBER THIS FRONT IS MOVING INTO
A MEAN RIDGE POSN ON THE EAST COAST AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING MUCH
RESISTANCE. WILL STALL THE FRONT OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
WITH VARIABLE WINDS WED-THU.

FCSTID = 29
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

ILM   73  91  73  90 /  30  40  30  30
LBT   71  92  71  91 /  40  40  30  30
FLO   72  92  72  92 /  50  40  30  30
MYR   74  89  74  88 /  30  40  30  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PFAFF     - PUBLIC
ARMSTRONG - MARINE

NCZ087-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-171915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2002

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST INTO MARLBORO
AND FLORENCE COUNTIES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO BENNETTSVILLE BY 2 PM
AND WILL APPROACH FLORENCE AND PAMPLICO BY 230 PM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH AND A HALF IN AN
HOUR. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO ROBESON...DILLON...AND MARION
COUNTIES BY 315 PM.

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