Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
725 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

***ANOTHER UPDATE TO ZFP TO INCLUDE ALL REMAINING COUNTIES IN SVR
TSTM WATCH 304...MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN
WATCH 302 AND EXPIRE AT 10 PM***

***WILL UPDATE ZFP TO INCLUDE MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES IN
SVR TSTM WATCH 302***

CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE CWA
INTO TONIGHT. SW FLOW COMBINED WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE SO FAR TODAY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S AND THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN MORE. THE LINE OF TSTMS BEGINNING TO ENTER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA/S HAS BEEN FILLING IN NICELY THE PAST FEW
HOURS. AS THIS LINE PROGRESSES EWRD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATING LI/S BETWEEN -4 AND -5 ACROSS THE CWA. A SQUALL LINE OF
TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE CURRENTLY SHOWING UNI-DIRECTIONAL
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS NOW AT ABOUT 10K FT. MODELS STILL INDICATING
WINDS AT THE MID LEVELS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE AVN IS A LITTLE BIT QUICKER BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH...BUT BOTH THE ETA AND AVN HAVE THE FRONT OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD DYNAMICS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT COMING LATE THIS
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT.

ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES...SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR. DECENT CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO TUE AFTERNOON...LOWERING H8 TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG C FROM
TODAY. WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE CAA
EARLY...THEY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON TUE.

CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

EXTENDED DISC THU THRU MON: OPMRF...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SIMILAR
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD W/ HIGH PRES POSND OFF
THE MID-ATLC/SE COASTS. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES INTO THE VICINITY THIS WEEKEND. THE OPMRF SHOWS A LOW
THAT APPEARS TOO STRONG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE CANADIAN APPEARS TOO PROGRESSIVE W/ FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PER HPC DISC WILL ALSO GO W/ SLOWER SOLN...WHICH IS ALREADY
EMBEDDED IN THE CURRENT FCST. FOR MON THINK THE FRONT WILL BE S AND
SE OF THE FCST AREA SO WILL NOT CARRY POPS INTO DAY 7. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE MRF DOES NOT SEEM THAT FAR OFF BASE...THOUGH WILL STICK
CLOSER TO THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

CWF: WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NW AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE W. CAA WILL KEEP WINDS UP EARLY
TUE...THEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
N/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED...THEN HIGH PRES MOVES RIGHT
OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
SEAS UP TO 6 OR 7 FT TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE.

FCSTID = 36
ILM   59  77  51  77 /  60   0   0   0
LBT   56  77  48  77 /  60   0   0   0
FLO   57  78  50  78 /  60   0   0   0
MYR   60  76  52  75 /  60   0   0   0

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

JAQ/CRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
814 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0802 PM    LAMAR                     NC   WIND DAMAGE
05/13/02   DARLINGTON                     TREES DOWN WITHIN THE CITY
                                          OF LAMAR. REPORTED BY
                                          DARLINGTON 911.