Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT TIME. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING DIURNAL MINIMUM THIS MORNING. CLOUD
DEBRIS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

META MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN GFS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO...
WIND FIELDS ON GFS WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. META HANGING ONTO MID LEVEL WINDS OF 50+ KT
WITH H8 WINDS 35 TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HELICITY NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING TODAY...SURFACE
WINDS MAY BACK TO SSE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK LOWERED FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT PER SPC
DISCUSSION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FRONT IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL SLOW
TO A STALL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND RIPPLES ALONG BOUNDARY. FRONT MAY ACTUALLY RETROGRADE...BUT
LOOKS LIKE AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY AND SO INCLUDED
THUNDER. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAKES TUESDAY AN INTERESTING DAY AS
WELL. REPLACED PREVIOUS STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHEAST OF AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND COLD
FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE COAST BY WED MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
FOLLOWING DURING WED.

MARINE: HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE SCA FOR ALL WATERS TODAY. ONE REASON
IS THAT WINDS HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS ALL NIGHT AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 5-6 FT. WHILE WINDS ARE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER NEAR SHORE...SOME OBS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STILL INDICATE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT. THE OTHER REASON IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHILE WEAKENING...IS STILL FCST TO BE AROUND 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL ONLY HELP TO BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE GFS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE ETA WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT INLAND. BOTH MODELS INDICATE LOW PRES
RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT TUE AND THEN NE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT
OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP NW WINDS AT MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM  79 65 71 53 / 60 100 100 100
LBT  78 63 66 51 / 60 100 100 100
FLO  79 64 66 50 / 60 100 100 100
MYR  77 65 71 53 / 60 100 100 100

.ILM...
.NC...SCA.
.SC...SCA.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
500 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES. PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL OCCUR.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTERS AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN THE EVENT OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL
TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION
PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND AND HAIL.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DIGIORGI

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-111700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
515 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY TURN SEVERE...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND MID-
SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST
DANGEROUS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE WATER TO COLLECT IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LOCALLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WITH THE APPROACH OF STORMY WEATHER...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE. IF
YOU HAVE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS...OUTDOOR FURNITURE...PLANTERS OR
LOOSE OBJECTS LYING AROUND YOUR PROPERTY...YOU MAY WANT TO BRING
THEM INDOORS OR SECURE THEM TO KEEP THEM FROM BEING DAMAGED BY THE
WIND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. IF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES
WILL BE ISSUED. WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT...THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

YOU CAN KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY TUNING TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER OUTLETS. YOU CAN ALSO LOG ONTO
YOUR COMPUTER AND VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM
(ALL IN LOWER CASE).

DIGIORGI