Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
315 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2002

COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND 09Z-12Z. THE ETA PLACES THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
REGION...WITH STRONG UVM...SFC CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE AVN DOES PLACE SOME DECENT OMEGA VALUES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE S. A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL NECESSITATES RAISING POPS TO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES TONIGHT...SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS SEEM
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...A STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND TS KYLE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SE. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE AREA WITH WAA
SPREADING OVER THE CWA. GOOD DYNAMICS REMAIN IN PLACE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST S CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON WED...HELPING TO MOVE THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY FARTHER
OFFSHORE. COASTAL TROUGH TAKES BETTER SHAPE FRI AND SAT AND WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND MON AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER REGION.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ETA MUCH WARMER AND
SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED ON THE NE FLOW WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE.
LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS MOS. IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE
FCST...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS GENERALLY COOLER THAN THE MEX SO WENT
WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO.

EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE TUE MORNING. TIDAL
DEPARTURES AT SPRINGMAID PIER ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN .5-.6 FT
ABOVE FCST VALUES...ALREADY UP FROM THE .25 FT DEPARTURE THIS
MORNING. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL ANY ISSUES THIS EVENING AS FCST
VALUES ARE GREATER THAN HALF A FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNINGS HIGH
TIDE. HOWEVER...A STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CAUSING DEPARTURES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AND SWELLS FROM TS KYLE WILL ONLY
EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. WILL HEADLINE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN
COASTAL ZONES FOR TUE MORNING/S HIGH TIDE. WE MAY EVEN SEE TIDE
LEVELS APPROACH CRITERIA FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH CHS WILL NOT ISSUE AN WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE: EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z TO 10Z. GRADIENT VERY TIGHT
WITH KYLE E AND STRONG HIGH TO N. BELIEVE GFS UNDERDOING WIND SPEED
FORECAST AND WW3 UNDER-FORECASTING SEAS. BEHIND FRONT...NE WIND TO
20 KT BY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 KT ON TUE. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5
FT BY MORNING AND 6 TO AS MUCH AS 8 FT ON TUE IN STRONG NE SURGE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TROUGH AS WEDGE TO W
STRENGTHENS. TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE STILL IN
QUESTION....BEST GUESS IS WED OR THU. AT THIS TIME...KEPT WIND
DIRECTION E OR NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TUE
NIGHT AND TO 4 FT THU NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SCA EXPECTED TUE.

FCSTID = 36
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM   67  73  62  74 /  60  60  60  50
LBT   66  71  59  73 /  70  60  60  50
FLO   66  72  61  74 /  70  70  60  50
MYR   68  73  63  73 /  70  70  70  50

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE: DIGIORGI

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-071015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CRM