Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
123 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY DRY, STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 850 MBS, AS LIS ARE IN THE 0
TO -4 RANGE.  WILL GO WITH LOW POPS EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSTLY SUNNY AND A GUSTY NORTH BREEZE
TAKES OVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY, BUT
STILL FEEL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS UP
IN CENTRAL KANSAS.  MEANWHILE, THE FRONT SHOULD NOT COME THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON, SO MAY SEE MID 70S DOWN BY
COFFEYVILLE.

THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE LAST SPRING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.  UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TUMBLE.  WILL KEEP UPPER
30S GOING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.  THIS IS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.  NORMALLY, WOULD GO EVEN LOWER
WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, BUT WITH RECENT RAINS AND STILL
WARM GROUND, TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL.  WICHITA MID
CONTINENT AIRPORT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVERYONE ELSE,
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE DOWNTOWN.  OF COURSE THE
HUTCHINSON ASOS SHOULD SEE MID 30S.

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA, BUT COULD SEEM
SOME RAIN SHOWERS VENTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER.  WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TREND OF WARMEST
READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST AND COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA.  AGAIN, IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN OKLAHOMA, BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES.  WILL GO A 20 POP FOR THIS REGION, WITH 30
POPS FOR THE ROW OF COUNTIES ON THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  EITHER WAY,
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES HAPPEN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA, SHOULD
COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE, WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS OUR AREA.

...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION...

.ICT...NONE.

FRANK

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061023-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
521 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.