Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
359 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

TNGT:
COMPLEX WX PAT WITH MODELS STRUGGLING. BELIEVE BOTH ETA/AVN HAVE
SGFNT PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTION. AVN DVLPS SPURIOUS VORT MAX AND ETA
WITH THE NOW TYPICAL SOGGY SOLUTION.  WITH 2 MAIN LOWS...BELIEVE
FLOW ACRS MOST OF FCST AREA WL LKLY LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SVR...ALTHO INSTAB AND SPD SHEAR GOOD ENUF TO
KEEP A MENTION OF SVR.  SUSPECT PCPN WL QUICKLY LINE OUT...WITH
TRAILING STRATIFORM PCPN ENLARGING SOMETIME AROUND MIDNGT AND BACK
EDGE NOT MOVING OR RETROGRADING SLGTLY AS MAIN UPR LOW APCHS AND
DIFFLUENCE INCRS.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF
I-35.  SUSPECT SVR POTNL WL MAINLY BE ACRS S CNTRL KS BFR MIDNGT.
BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE DMGG WNDS WITH BOW ECHO AND HAIL ERY.
BELIEVE TORNADO THREAT IS SML.  NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABT FLOODING
POTENTIAL ATTM GIVEN LACK OF SGFNT H85 FNT/MSTR AND ANTECENDENT
CONDITIONS.

THU:
POTENTIALLY ONGOING PCPN ERN HALF OF FCST AREA WITH DRY SLOT PUSHING
INTO MIDDLE OF FCST AREA.  PCPN WOULD LKLY TO MOVE INTO/DVLP TO THE
NW OF FCST AREA INVOF THE CORE OF UPR LO.  STILL NEED TO EXAMINE
INSTAB PROGS/SOUNDINGS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THUNDER.
AND WOULD SEEM TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PESKY COLD AIR FUNNELS.

THU NGT:
PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS UPR SYS LIFTS NE.  CONCERN IS THAT SE
KS MAY GET DRY SLOTTED AND NEVER HAVE ANY PCPN FM CORE WORK INTO
THAT AREA.  FOR NOW WL CONT GOING SML POPS...WHILE INCRG POPS IN ERN
PORTION OF NRN COUNTIES.

FRI-SAT:
WITH HI PRES BUILDING INTO REGION SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
FRI. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE AREA DURG SAT AS
THE UPR TROF DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS.  MSTR RETURN APPRS UNLKLY
ATTM...AND HAVE NIXED REMAINING POPS.

SUN-MON:
APPRS THAT RETURN FLOW WL DVLP THIS PD WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
NICELY.  SOME DISAGREEMENT BTWN ECMWF/GFS ON TEMPS...WITH ECMWF LKLY
OVERDOING DNSLP AND WARMING TO THE W AND GFS UNDERDOING IT.  HAVE
SPLIT DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS...WHICH WAS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WAS
GOING.

TUE-WED:
FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT FNT DROPPING IN FM THE N AND THE ASSOCIATED UPR
TROF. AS TYPICAL...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF A BIT
SLOWER...WITH SVRL GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLOWER SOLUTIONS.  WOULD
APPR THAT THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN WOULD BE TUE NGT/WED...WHICH
IS A TAD SLOWER THAT MODELS WOULD SUG AT FACE VALUE.  HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME MORE SLOWING OF THE SYS.  TEMPS SLGTLY
COOLER TUE DUE TO CLDS AND WED FM COLD AIR ADVCTN.  SOME CONCERN
THAT GIVEN TEMP RANGE MAY NOT BE ENUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA.

FCSTID =   17/HOWERTON
ICT   62  69  54  77 /  70  60  20  10
HUT   59  68  53  78 /  60  60  20  10
EWK   61  68  54  77 /  70  60  30  10
EQA   63  69  55  76 /  70  60  30  10
WLD   64  70  55  77 /  70  60  20  10
RSL   55  65  49  78 /  50  70  20  10
GBD   56  66  51  79 /  50  70  20  10
SLN   58  67  53  77 /  60  60  40  10
MPR   61  68  54  77 /  70  60  30  10
CFV   68  72  57  75 /  70  80  30  10
CNU   66  71  57  75 /  80  80  30  10
K88   66  70  56  75 /  80  80  40  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.