Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2002

FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP FIRST COUPLE PERIODS.

TODAY: SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR MOST OF CWA. ALL MODELS PROG
AN MCS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS GETTING UNDERWAY OVER EASTERN CO AND
WESTERN KS, IN AN AREA LOCATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300MB
JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER JET NOSES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SFC BOUNDARY WL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A SFC LOW
FORMS OVER NW OK. THIS WL ALSO AID IN CONTINUING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GENERALLY EASTERLY SFC FLOW WL CONTINUE TO PUMP AMPLE
MOISTURE INTO ANY COMPLEX THAT GETS GOING. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE ACTIVITY WL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO AT LEAST 850MB, AND COOLING MID AND UPPER LEVELS
CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY, CANNOT RULE-OUT AN ISOLATED HAIL OR
WIND EVENT TODAY.

WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MID AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND ALL DAY, TEMPS SHOULD BE HELP IN CHECK. IE. 80S.

TONIGHT-SUN NGHT: WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LINGERING AROUND AREA,
ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WL BE IN THE REGION THE NOSE OF AN 850MB JET.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS TGHT, WITH A LOWER POPS OVER CENTRAL KS ZONES. PRECIP
SUN SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE A SFC
RIDGE SETS-UP OVER CWA.

MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SUN. BUT IF DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION CLEARS-OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED, COULD SEE 90S. SO THERE
IS A DECENT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

EXTENDED: CWA WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF OUR PRECIP CHANCES MON AND TUES. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE TUES INTO WED AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING COMMENCES OVER CWA
WHICH WL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. PREV FCST
HAD THIS WELL IN HAND. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION THURS
AND FRI. GFS IS STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS, THEY BOTH
LOOK FAIRLY DRY THURS AND FRI.

WL BUMP TEMPS MONDAY BASED ON PROJECTED ETAX 850 TEMPS, WHICH WOULD
PLACE MUCH OF CWA IN 90S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE KS.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   86  67  85  67 /  70  50  20  10
HUT   83  66  85  66 /  70  40  10  10
EWK   84  66  85  66 /  70  40  10  10
EQA   85  67  85  67 /  70  40  20  10
WLD   91  68  88  67 /  70  50  20  10
RSL   83  66  86  64 /  70  30  10  10
GBD   83  67  86  65 /  70  30  10  10
SLN   83  66  86  64 /  70  30  10  10
MPR   84  66  85  66 /  70  30  10  10
CFV   87  66  87  67 /  60  50  20  10
CNU   86  67  85  67 /  60  40  20  10
K88   86  67  85  67 /  60  40  20  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

LAWSON

KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1050 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

AT LATE EVENING, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST
OVERNIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
COLORADO.

THE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
3 OR 4 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
STILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THEY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS,
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAWN. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

KED

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241001-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

AT LATE EVENING, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST
OVERNIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
COLORADO.

THE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
3 OR 4 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
STILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THEY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS,
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAWN. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

KED