Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

FCST CONCERN...
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO TUES...

MAJOR TROUGH STILL DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. INITIAL WAVE
WHICH TRIGGERED OVERNIGHT STORMS NOW DEPARTING. MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS
EVIDENT ACROSS SE MONTANA INTO WYOMING. MORNING UPPER AIR FEATURES
OF NOTE INCLUDED 850MB MOISTURE AXIS OF +14 TO +15C ACROSS THE CWA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INCLUDED 1.7 INCHES+ ACROSS OK. MORNING
UPPER AIR ALSO REFLECTED A RATHER DEEP MOIST LAYER EXTENDING TOWARD
10000FT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS PRODUCING
MOISTURE FLUX CON.  AT THE SFC, MORNING CONVECTION /WEAK SUBSIDENCE
HAS MIXED DEWPOINTS OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA HOWEVER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN OK WERE INCREASING WITH
TIME INTO THE LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE, MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
NOSING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONT WAS
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS NEB AND EVIDENT BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT, CONCERN IS FOR SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAINS. APPEARS
LIKELY THAT A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC PROCESSES LIFT AND COOL THIS
LAYER. SFC FRONT WILL AID IN FORCING AFTER 21Z. WIND PROFILES AND
CAPE SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WITH SOME THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. APPEARS TORNADIC THREAT WOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
PRIMARILY HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND. WHAT IS STRIKING HOWEVER IS
THE FCST MOISTURE PARAMETERS TONIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS EMERGE
ACROSS THE AREA.  AFTER 06Z 850-700MB THETA E RIDGE IS FCST TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE INSTABILITY WOULD ALSO BE
GREATEST ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA. LLJ OF 35-40KTS NOSING UP ALONG
THE TURNPIKE WITHIN THE THETA E RIDGE WHILE 500-300MB WINDS OF
20-40KTS WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING FOR A TIME
AFTER 06Z. HIGH FFG GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SE KS, HOWEVER GIVEN DEGREE OF UPPER
DIV/DYNAMIC FORCING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE PARAMETERS/FCST WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 10KFT FEEL THAT SOME AREAS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
HPC/SGF AND WILL ISSUE GENERIC FLOOD WATCH WITH GREATEST EMPHASIS ON
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN GREATER INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHCS TUES UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
ARGUE FOR A RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. MAX TEMPS OF 75 TO 80 WITH
GOING PRECIP CHCS LOOK GOOD.  CONDS SHOULD QUIET DOWN WEDS WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE FCST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEB
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON THURS IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE.
AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND WILL MONITOR. HYBRID NW
FLOW REGIME FCST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NO REAL FEATURE TO KEY
IN ON SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.

FCSTID =   11
ICT   65  78  60  85 /  80  50  20   5
HUT   63  78  58  86 /  80  40  10   5
EWK   64  77  58  85 /  90  40  20   5
EQA   65  78  58  85 /  90  50  20   5
WLD   67  80  59  84 /  80  60  30   5
RSL   57  78  56  87 /  70  20  10   5
GBD   59  78  57  87 /  70  30  10   5
SLN   61  78  57  87 /  70  30  10   5
MPR   64  77  58  85 /  90  40  10   5
CFV   68  79  59  84 /  80  60  30   5
CNU   67  78  58  84 /  80  60  30   5
K88   66  77  58  84 /  80  50  20   5

.ICT...
KS...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ052>053...KSZ067>072...
KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST
OF I-35 AND EAST OF I-35 TONIGHT...

FOR THE AREA WEST OF I-35,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 1 INCH HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A
LINE.  PRIOR TO THE LINE FORMING, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ONCE THE LINE DEVELOPS, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 60 MPH LIKELY.

FOR THE AREA EAST OF I-35,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MILES
PER HOUR COULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM YATES CENTER TO CHETOPA. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THIS REGION
IS MINIMAL.

THE SYNOPSIS,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA, TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AT MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS
MOST OF KANSAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.  WIND PROFILES SUGGEST
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING, PRIOR TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING INTO A LINE.  CONDITIONS
ALONG THE FRONT, WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

HOWERTON