Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT, AND OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLINT HILLS AND SERN KS TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
BREAK OUT ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HIGH CAPE/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
AND ERODING CAP. KEPT HIEST POPS (50%) IN SERN KS AND TAPERED THEM
TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE WICHITA AREA, TO NONE IN CNTRL KS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WL BE DOWN IN CNTRL OK/AR BY 12Z
TUES, THUS ONLY SLT CHC POPS AT BEST IN THE FAR SERN ZONES EARLY.

OTHERWISE SOME DRIER AIR WL WORK INTO THE FCST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING COOLEST MINS TONIGHT (MID 60S) IN
CNTRL KS WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AIDING IN RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GIVEN THE FRONT HAS SLOWED SOME THIS PM, WENT 1-2 DEG HIGHER THAN
THE WARMER FWC/ETA IN SEVERAL SPOTS OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS TUES WL
LIKELY BE WARMER THAN TODAY IN CNTRL KS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR, ACCORDING TO THE ETA/NGM 1000-850 THICKNESSES.
KEPT LOWS IN MID 60S TUES NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS,
LEANING WITH ETA/FWC LOWS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS GRADUALLY
WARMER AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS AND INCREASES, ADVECTING LOW LVL
MOISTURE BACK INTO KS. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
THE FCST AREA SO HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 90S.

EXTENDED PERIOD FRI-MON:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR PATTERN
FRI AND SAT...WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING SUN INTO MON. THE ECMWF
AMPLIFIES AN UPR TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW SUN INTO MON, WHEREAS THE
MRF DOES NOT AMPLIFY THIS TROF UNTIL MON-TUES OVER SERN CANADA.
THE OTHER NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WAS THAT THE AVN SENDS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROF INTO NRN KS LATE THURS THROUGH FRI, ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN STREAM. THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
SHOW THIS. ATTM, KEPT A 20 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN FOR
THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY WARM AND
MAINLY DRY. AS THE MRF AMPLIFIES THE UPR PATTERN MON-TUE OF NEXT
WEEK, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SWD THRU KS PROVIDING A CHC OF T-STORMS
MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH IS JUST BEYOND OUR FCST PERIOD ATTM.

FCSTID =  09
ICT   68  90  65  93 /  30  10   0   5
HUT   67  90  65  94 /  20   5   0   5
EWK   67  89  65  93 /  30   5   0   5
EQA   69  89  65  92 /  30  10   0   5
WLD   69  91  65  94 /  40  20   0   5
RSL   63  90  65  95 /  10   5   0   5
GBD   65  91  66  96 /  10   5   0   5
SLN   66  88  65  92 /  10   5   0   5
MPR   67  89  65  93 /  10   5   0   5
CFV   70  91  66  92 /  50  20   0   5
CNU   69  89  65  90 /  50  20   0   5
K88   69  89  64  90 /  50  10   0   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-222300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...

LATE THIS MORNING...A COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF AN EMPORIA...
TO WICHITA LINE.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70.  RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAS PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL ERODE THIS LAYER OF WARM AIR.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COOL FRONT DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WITH LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH OR DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THE AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MADISON...TO
LATHAM...TO WINFIELD LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED DO TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT.

FRANK