Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

...PRODUCTS WILL BE LATE DUE TO AWIPS PROBLEMS...

TNGT:
WL GO A LTL WARMER THAN GOING FCST FOR TNGT.  LTST MOS VERY CLOSE
AND GIVEN WARM START THIS MORNING...LWR 70S LOOKS GOOD AT MOST
LOCATIONS.  WL GO ISOLD PCPN TNGT WITH TSRA THRU SUNSET.  CANNOT
RULE SOMETHING CLIPPING N/NE SXNS TWRDS DAYBREAK.

WED:
REALLY TOUGH FCST WITH A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM EACH MODEL.  ECMWF
TRADITIONALLY DOES BETTER IN NW FLOW PATTERNS...AND THE LTST RUN
VERY SIMILAR TO PREV RUN.  THE STRONGER SHRTWV IT PROGS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP.  HOWEVER IT IS PROBABLY
TOO SLOW BRINGING FNT/OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS THE REGION.  THE ETA SEEMS
TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE TOO COOL/FAST AVN.  WL UP
TEMPS SVRL DEG AS ETA PROGG VRY WARM TEMPS AHD OF FNT. IF FNT SLOWS
EVEN A LTL...SOME SECTIONS COULD HAVE A SHOT AT TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER DO NOT WANT TO FCST THE UPPER EXTREME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING.  THE FCST OF MID-UPR 90S IS A BETTER MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
FCST...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY WARMER/COOLER. ANTICIPATE
POPS WL BE IN CHC CATEGORY DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

WED NGT-THU NGT:
WITH SHRTWV STILL LAGGING BACK AND NOT AT ALL CONVINCED THAT FNT WL
BE OUT OF THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS GOING THRU AT LEAST THU/THU NGT.
NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION WL OCCUR. ERLY COMP WL
BE OFFSET BY MUCH

FRI-FRI NGT:
WL CONT GOING DRY FCST.  CLDS/PCPN COULD STILL BE LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH CONCENSUS FOR NOW.

SAT-SUN:
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COOLED TEMPS ALF SLGTLY DURG THIS PD. HAVE
TRIMMED A COUPLE OF DEG OFF FCST MAXES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
LACK OF DNSLP COMPONENT.  BOTH US/CAN ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH UPR PAT STARTING SUN.

MON-TUE:
MINIMAL AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLES DURG THIS PD.  THE PROBLEM STEMS
FROM ORIENTATION/LOCATION OF WRN UPR RDG AND RESULTANT ERN US TROF.
SOME PSBLTY THAT SHEAR AXIS AND/OR OLD FNT WL BE INVOF SE KS.  THIS
MIGHT LEAD TO SCT AFTN/EVE TSRA...BUT GIVEN AMT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
ENSEMBLES...NOT ABT TO PUT PCPN IN FCST ATTM.  WL CONT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THRUT THE PD.

FCSTID = HOWERTON
ICT   73  98  70  89 /  20  30  40  30
HUT   72  97  69  88 /  20  30  40  30
EWK   73  97  69  88 /  20  40  40  30
EQA   73  96  70  88 /  20  30  40  30
WLD   73  98  72  90 /  20  30  40  30
RSL   70  95  66  87 /  20  40  30  30
GBD   70  96  67  88 /  20  40  30  30
SLN   72  96  66  87 /  20  40  40  30
MPR   73  97  69  88 /  20  40  40  30
CFV   73  96  71  88 /  20  20  40  30
CNU   73  95  69  87 /  20  30  40  30
K88   73  95  68  86 /  20  30  40  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.