Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMBINES WITH
TYPICAL MOISTURE FOR LATE MAY.

TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  THE NEW
MESO-ETA MODEL DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON THE DRYLINE...AND BRINGS A SQUALL LINE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED...FEEL THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.  WILL GO WITH 40 POPS IN
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.  LOWS SHOULD
GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE 60 DEGREES WITH INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.

ON MONDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST
CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  WILL TREND
POPS FROM 5O IN THIS REGION...TO 30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD HIGHS BETWEEN 75
AND 80.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY POSE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE OKLAHOMA...KANSAS BORDER.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH...AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH.  HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE BETWEEN 75 AND 80 WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION.

WILL JUST GO WITH A 20 POP ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
ENERGY SHOULD FINALLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL THE MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE
AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE
OVER.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S...AS WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION.  WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.

FCSTID =8/FRANK
ICT   63  78  63  78 /  40  50  60  50
HUT   63  78  63  78 /  40  40  60  40
EWK   63  78  63  78 /  40  40  60  50
EQA   63  79  63  78 /  40  50  60  50
WLD   63  78  63  78 /  40  50  60  50
RSL   61  78  61  78 /  40  30  30  30
GBD   62  78  62  78 /  40  40  30  30
SLN   63  78  63  78 /  40  30  50  40
MPR   63  78  63  78 /  40  40  60  50
CFV   61  78  63  78 /  30  40  60  60
CNU   61  78  61  78 /  30  40  60  60
K88   61  78  61  78 /  30  40  60  60

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093-262215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT.  I EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ENCOUNTER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING.  LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 TO 8 WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
CAPES TO 3400. IF STORMS MAKE IT THIS FAR...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE MCS.

CHANCE

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093-262230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT.  I EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ENCOUNTER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING.  LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 TO 8 WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
CAPES TO 3400. IF STORMS MAKE IT THIS FAR...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE MCS.

CHANCE