Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 AM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND TIMING OF THE FRONT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING TWO WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX AT 500MB. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IS HELPING ENHANCE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP DUE TO STILL SOME FAIRLY HIGH BASED CEILINGS.
ALTHOUGH, CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL AS THINGS BEGIN TO SATURATE
UP. BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE, ANOTHER MORE DISTINCT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE
ARE GOING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUDS
MOVING IN.

TONIGHT:
THE MODELS SHOW THE WAVES SHIFTING INTO MISSOURI BY LATE IN THE
EVENING. WE ARE GOING TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST TO REFLECT
THIS. BEHIND THESE WAVES, MODELS DEPICT STILL GOOD UPGLIDE ON THE
I295-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. LOW CEILINGS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT FALL TO MUCH DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS.

MONDAY:
THE ETA/AVN HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IT APPEARS AS IF THIS
WAVE MAY PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE TROF BUILDING IN THE
ROCKIES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY BACK NEAR AS MUCH AS THE
CURRENT WAVE, BUT I STILL SEE THE NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD STRONG DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR UPSLOPE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES:
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A GOOD GAUGE ON THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH EVEN SOME WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE ETA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING A STRONG WAVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY, BUT THE AVN/UKMET SHOWS IT BEING MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
NORTH. WE ARE GOING TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS TIME, BUT KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AVN ALSO
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ETA. IF THAT TAKES
PLACE THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON TUES. NORMALLY I WOULD AGREE
WITH THE ETA SOLUTION ON THE POSITION OF THIS FRONT, BUT FOR NOW WE
WILL USE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVN/UKMET/ETA.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE ARE GOING TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT IF THE TROF CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTH QUICKER THAN PROGGED THAN THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST
AND SOUTH OF US. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WED.
LATER ON THIS WEEK WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES HIT THE CELLER WITH A
HARD FREEZE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FCSTID =   18/COX
ICT   45  43  49  44 / 100  50  40  40
HUT   44  42  49  44 / 100  50  40  40
EWK   44  42  49  44 / 100  50  40  40
EQA   46  43  49  44 / 100  60  50  50
WLD   47  43  49  44 / 100  60  50  50
RSL   42  40  46  41 / 100  40  40  40
GBD   42  40  46  41 / 100  40  40  40
SLN   43  41  47  42 / 100  50  40  40
MPR   43  41  47  43 / 100  50  40  40
CFV   50  43  49  44 /  90  60  50  50
CNU   49  43  49  44 /  90  60  50  50
K88   48  43  49  44 /  90  60  50  50

.ICT...NONE
COX

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 AM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MONDAY TO TUESDAY:
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY:
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE FRONT MAY
ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/COX