Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
608 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

UPDATED DISC...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DEAL WITH THE CURRENT STORMS OVER
GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND FAR SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES.  ALSO TO
DEAL WITH THE STORMS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST.

PREV DISC...
BROAD TROUGH EVIDENT AT 500 MB OVER THE WESTERN GULF...TX...NM...AND
AZ REGIONS.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD AFFECT SE TX INTO SATURDAY WITH A
RIDGE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  THE NEXT TROUGH
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THE STORMS OVER S TX VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THEY ALSO LOOKED TO OVER EMPHASIZE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.  HOWEVER...EACH LOOKED TO RECOVER AND DO A REASONABLE JOB BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE MESO SCALE
FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE MODEL PROBLEMS EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND LAST EVENING.  LIKED THE AVN/ETA IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE AVN THE SLOWEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.  FORECAST ISSUES ARE
POPS THE FIRST THREE PERIODS AND DAYS 6 AND 7...THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

FEEL THAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THE POPS WILL
BE A BIT GREATER OVER THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  TONIGHT
LOOKS OKAY AS DOES THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.  DAY 6...THURSDAY...
NOW LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN DAY 7 ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MRF.

CONCERNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME DOMINATE OVER SE TX
BY OR JUST AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...PLUS THE 850 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE AT
THE COAST BY OR JUST AFTER 12Z AS WELL.

FOR THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AGREE WITH THE SPC DAY
ONE ASSESSMENT.  THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CAPES OF 3200
PLUS AND LI/S OF -8 OR LESS.  THE WET BULB ZERO LOOKED A BIT HIGH
AT 11000 FEET...THE PW/S A BIT LOW...AND SHEAR LOW.  FEEL THAT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL FROM
THE STORMS OUT WEST THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...LIKE THE MAV OUTPUT FOR
THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR THIS WEEKEND.  IN THOSE CASES WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE FWC...MAV...ETA OUTPUTS.

PL/40
31

.HGX...SCEC GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.
       SCEC 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

PRELIMS...
CLL TB 090/061 078/049 079 671
IAH EB 090/064 077/052 080 472
GLS EB 085/071 077/061 078 473

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-172100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE GULF AIR MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND SHEAR AND A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL WILL LIMIT THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59. THE PRIMARY THREAT TIME IS FROM
2 PM TO 10 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR
ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

31/JWZ
40/PL