Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS SEA BREEZE HAS
BEEN HELD CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS.HEATING
HAS ALSO NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE FROM MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE WEST. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SVR SQUALL LINE WHICH
IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS N TX IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WV MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IN NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
BELIEVE THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WHICH PUTS NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FA AT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CEN ZONES
LATER THIS EVE...SO MAY ADD MENTION OF SVR POSSIBILITY TO THESE
ZONES AT PRESS TIME. WILL MONITOR LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
MAKING THIS DECISION.

MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO FIND BECAUSE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION. WHAT I DO EXPECT IS A BETTER CHC
OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHER
PW VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN EAST OF THE AREA. FA WILL ALSO BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES N/NW OF THE REGION WITH SHORT WV
ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE.

EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE SAME FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEING FORECAST BY THE AVN DURING THE THU-SAT
TIME PERIOD.

33/40

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 075/097 074/097 074 533
IAH BB 076/095 075/095 074 332
GLS BB 081/092 081/091 080 232

TXZ163-164-176>179-199-200-213-214-238-260200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR HOUSTON...
MADISON...WALKER...TRINITY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...MONTGOMERY...
LIBERTY...HARRIS...CHAMBERS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE
NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE...IN COMBINATION WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS....WILL
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THIS UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.