Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LUFKIN TO HOUSTON TO PALACIOS AT 545 PM. SPC
HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR ERN ZONES FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT
JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH LIS OF -4 TO -6 AND CAPES OF 1500 AHEAD
OF FRONT. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO INCREASE POPS FOR SERN PART OF CWA AND
ADD MENTION OF THUNDER. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF CWA BETWEEN 03 AND
04Z WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING AT THAT POINT.

35/30

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE FRONT HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS STILL ON A
CLIP TO HIT THE COASTAL ZONES AT/AROUND SUNSET. TEMPERATURE DROPS
WITH FROPA HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE - RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES F.
THE WAVE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THE
SRN END OF THE BOUNDARY MORE THAN THE NRN HALF. OUT AHEAD OF (AND
TO SOME EXTENT BEHIND) THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND (BUT
NO LIGHTNING DETECTED SO FAR). WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL/COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE TIMING. THAT IS...
WHEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND WHEN WE
WILL SEE THE NEXT WX SYSTEM (IN THE EXTENDED). AS FOR THE CURRENT
OVC DECK...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
THE CLEARING TO OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES A
LITTLE  BETTER ESTABLISHED. BUT HAVING SAID THAT THIS RIDGE NEVER
SEEMS TO SETTLE IN PROPERLY DURING THE WEEK (PER THE LATEST PROGS)
AND APPEARS TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE FLAT SIDE. AND WITH THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND...TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A TAD COLDER THAN TO-
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURS-
DAY WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AT THAT TIME. FOR THE
EXTENDED (IF THE LONG RANGE PROGS ARE ANY WHERE NEAR CORRECT) THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WET. 41/45/37

.HGX...SCA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS 0-60 NM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PRELIMS...
CLL EB 045/066 042/070 048 100
IAH EB 048/067 044/072 049 700
GLS EB 055/065 051/068 056 700

TXZ164-178-179-199-200-213-214-237-238-260700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 1
AM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM. THE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT EAST OF A LINE FROM TRINITY TO HOUSTON TO LAKE JACKSON.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IN THE WATCH...TRINITY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...MONTGOMERY...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...LIBERTY...AND
CHAMBERS.

SOME COMMUNITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE GROVETON...CORRIGAN...
LIVINGSTON...COLDSPRING...CONROE...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...ANAHUAC...
GALVESTON...AND LAKE JACKSON.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...MOVE INSIDE TO A REINFORCED STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.