Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2002

TEMPERATURES SOARED QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE FAIRLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LLVL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION FIRED QUICKLY AS
TEMPS HIT THE MID 90S...AND WITH READINGS NEAR 100 NOW EXPECT THIS
TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL PROBABLY
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EVENING HOURS - GETTING FAVORABLE
VILS, LRMS AND GOES SOUNDING CONFIRMS INVERTED V SOUNDING MENTIONED
THIS MORNING. SO...WIND WILL BE MAIN THREAT.

H5 TROF IN THE GULF SLOWLY MOVES WNW THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES INTO EITHER CNTRL LA (VIA ETA) OR MS COAST
(VIA AVN) EARLY MONDAY AND MEANDERS FOR A WHILE. AVN/CANADIAN TRY TO
BACKDOOR A FRONT INTO SE TX DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE ON ITS TAIL. FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY...WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING CHANCE WORDING IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR AND MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

IN THE MEANTIME...SWS MOVING E-W ALONG SOUTHERN PERIFERY OF H5
RIDGE...AFTN HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN WX-MAKER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ETA IS DEPICTING A RATHER HEALTHY S/W MOVING
THRU LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING - AVN A BIT SLOWER. WILL
STICK IN 30%ERS NOW AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
DONT THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE 100 DEGREE READINGS AGAIN
TOMORROW...ONLY THE UPPER 90S :)...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SE FLOW
EXPECTED.

.HGX...NONE

47/43

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 074/097 074/097 074 433
IAH BB 075/097 074/097 074 433
GLS BB 080/090 080/090 080 422

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT SAT AUG 3 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-040400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.  RAINFALL
RATES WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.