Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

REMNANTS OF FORMER MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU NRN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS COMPLEX
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
ALONG A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE PUTTING OUT 1.5/HOUR AND VILS PULSING UP INTO
THE MID 40S SO FAR. DYNAMICS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WX...BUT WERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION THRU
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SRN HALF WITH WIND/SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

GUT FEELING IS THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WE
GET A BREAK AS ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH AND/OR WEST AND
WE DEAL WITH THAT BEGINNING WED MORNING. NOT GONNA TRY AND GET CUTE
WITH THE WORDING SINCE WX WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN ON THE MESOSCALE -
MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT - AND TIMING/LOCATION WILL BE A BEAR TO FCST.

H5 LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CURRENTLY IN OK SHOULD HEAD SWD DOWN THE
SABINE AND ON TOP OF US BY THU NIGHT AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
THIS MEANS MUCH OF WHAT HAS ORIGINATED IN OK/N TX THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS/NIGHTS WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE FURTHER S WED-FRI. APPEARS BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE THU/THU NT. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE WRN GULF...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY SINCE A MEAN ERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL. NOTICED WERE
STILL MENTIONED IN DAY 2 OUTLOOK. AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT BUT WILL
LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW DECIDE IF THEY WANT TO MENTION OR NOT. ONLY
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR I CAN SEE ATTM IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -
HENCE LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS/INSTABILITY.

.HGX...NONE.

47/31

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 067/086 066/084 066 465
IAH TT 068/086 067/083 066 655
GLS BT 073/083 072/082 071 644

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-290000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM SHERIDAN TO NAVASOTA TO LIVINGSTON.

SKIES HAVE BRIEFLY CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM LAST
NIGHTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER AND BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD
TRACK AND WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD NOON. THIS
COMPLEX COMBINED WITH OTHER LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS...A WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED OTHER
THAN THE USUAL LOW LYING SPOTS AND FEEDER ROADS.

DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR ON
THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.