Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
815 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

SQUALL LINE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM DFW TO SAT. MOVEMENT HAS
BEEN FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. COORDINATION W/SPC HAS LED
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING INDICATE STRONG CAP TO THE
SOUTH (CRP) AND NO CAP AT ALL NORTH. LOW LEVEL JET RUNNING AT 40 KTS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW UP TO NEAR 70 WESTERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE. UPDATED ZFPHGX TO REFLECT SVR WATCH # 75.

47/42/BT

.HGX....SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 1 AM CDT FOR
        AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...MADISON
        AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
        FLASH FLOOD WATCH SE TX NORTH OF I-10 TONIGHT
        SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.
        SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

CLL TB 066/082 059/082 055 950
IAH TB 067/081 066/082 059 871
GLS TB 069/078 071/075 068 671

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COUPLE
OF MCS STORMS WERE FIRING AWAY OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS.  THE CAP
HAS LOOKED HARD TO BEAT SO FAR IN SE TX WHILE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS WON OVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...KEEPING
THE WINDS BELOW EXPECTED SPEEDS.  FORECAST PROBLEMS TO CONSIDER
INCLUDE THE IMPACT OF STORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY PLUS THE SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS.  TEMPERATURES ARE A
CONCERN BEYOND MONDAY...THEN A RETURN OF POPS BY THURSDAY.  OVERALL
LIKED THE AVN OVER THE ETA.

THE AVN SHEARS THE 500 MB LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...
THEN BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT INTO SE TX MONDAY NIGHT.  PW/S AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM REACH IN EXCESS OF 1.7 BY 12Z MONDAY.  WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OR TWO TRAVERSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WILL ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  ACCORDING TO THE
RFC RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE BEST LOCATION FOR THE WATCH IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BASIN
WIDE COULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY MONDAY.  A CHANCE OF SEVERE CONTINUES AS
SE TX WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE REGION LATER TONIGHT.  CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.

SEAS STILL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OFFSHORE.  EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS
OUT 60 NM AND WINDS OVER THE BAYS TO BE ABOVE CRITERIA TONIGHT.
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TXZ176-195>197-210-211-080600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
752 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES...

MADISON...BRAZOS...BURLESON...WASHINGTON...AUSTIN...COLORADO

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER 1000 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO KEEP ABREAST ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE
EAST MAY BE PLACED UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.