Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
235 PM CST MON DEC 30 2002

THE INITIAL S/W PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE ADO.
ONLY A FEW SHRA LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY LEVEL HERE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OUR NEIGHBORING NWSO OFFICE
TO THE NORTH. TO OUR WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO LINE UP IN
ANTICIPATION FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ARE ADDING AN
INTERESTING TWIST: THE TIMING OF EVENTS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN. IN A
REMARKABLY SIMILAR FASHION AMONG THE VARIOUS PROGS...THE COLD FRONT/
UPPER TROUGH-LOW ARE NOW BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6-12Z.
AS THIS TYPE OF MODEL AGREEMENT IS HARD TO IGNORE...WILL LIKELY BUMP
UP THE TIMING OF THINGS A FEW HOURS AS A COMPROMISE. THIS SLOWING OF
EVENTS MAKES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS/SLOWER CLOUD CLEARING FOR TOM-
ORROW THAT MUCH MORE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS IS ALREADY IN
THE ZONES...NOT MUCH CHANGE PLANNED FOR THAT PRODUCT. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A FLAREUP OF THE LINE OF STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST AS THE NEXT S/W
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE SEEMINGLY STILL DIGGING UPPER LOW AT/NEAR THE
BIG BEND. ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TOMORROW...LINGERING MOISTURE/POSSIBI-
LITY OF S/WS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED
POST FRONTAL STORMS. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...THE LOWER FREEZING LEVELS
COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME HAIL. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE FOR TONIGHT ONLY. THE NEXT RUNS MAY SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS.

DESPITE THE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM...THE EXTENDED PROGS ARE STILL
ON TRACK. THIS NEXT FRONT IS STILL SLATED FOR A LATE WED/EARLY THURS
PASSAGE AND A RELATIVELY DRY/QUIET WX PERIOD IS ON TAP THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
41/47

.HGX...SCA BAYS AND 0-60 NM WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 048/059 038/065 040 840
IAH TE 052/060 039/065 042 840
GLS TE 053/060 046/063 049 840

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-311300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 PM CST MON DEC 30 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...
.TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. A SQUALL LINE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND 6 PM...AND SWEEP OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
.TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.