Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TX
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER CWA TONIGHT WITH
ENHANCED UPPER DIFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING 300 MB JET.
WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST OFF UPPER TX COAST EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR SE HALF OF AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ALONG NORTHWARD LIFTING BOUNDARY. PER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM
SPC...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP AS TROPICAL AIRMASS
MOVES INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE WW BEING ISSUED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER SE TX
OVERNIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS...COULD SEE STRONG/SEVERE TSRA FIRE
LATER TONIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF SEVERE FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN TUE/TUE NIGHT IS HOW FAR SOUTH WEAK FRONT PENETRATES
AREA IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TREND OF LAST
COUPLE OF FRONTS WHICH PUSHED JUST OFF COAST BEFORE STALLING. THIS
WOULD BE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS. PWS FCST TO DROP TO
AROUND 1.3 INCHES SRN HALF BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
FOCUS AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
CONVECTION TUE AFTN/NIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. WITH FINALLY SOME
SUNSHINE TUE/WED WILL SEE WARMER MAX TEMPS. LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

AS UPPER TROF DIGS INTO ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK...A POLAR AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATEST GFS/ETA IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BRINGING INITIAL FRONT OFF TX COAST WED EVENING. UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
FINALLY SHOVE MAIN COLD AIRMASS SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THIS SECOND
STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE IN SE TX LATE FRIDAY.

35/42

.HGX...FFA TONIGHT SE OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE.
       SCEC 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 062/080 061/078 052 521
IAH EB 067/081 064/080 056 841
GLS EB 072/079 071/078 066 842

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AREA WIDE...

.DAY ONE...
TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY MORNING.

RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED THE LAST WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HAS RESULTED IN A SATURATED GROUND WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR
BANKFULL OR FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CREATE FLOODING ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.