Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

CONVECTION NOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER CWFA ESPECIALLY WESTERN
ZONES. STRONGER CELLS PROPAGATING JUST SOUTHWEST OF REGION WHERE
LIFTED INDECIES AND HELICITY VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER. LOWER TO MID
70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW EVIDENT ALONG COASTAL ZONES WHILE COOLER AIR
INLAND SHOWING 60S DEWPOINTS. GFS INDICATE OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL
JET CORE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION TONIGHT W/PWATS GOING UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD WILL LINGER ON THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COUNTIES...AND EXTEND IT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
COASTAL REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND PULL BACK
FRIDAY. DESPITE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE IN A SURFACE TROUGHING ZONE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY W/NORTHERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE.  SLIGHT DRYING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY WILL CONSEQUENT RESULT IN LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWESTERLY SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER
ARIZONA. THIS LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
CONUS BY MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE
HEADED OUR WAY. DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN STORE
TOWARDS LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL RAISE CAUTION FOR 0-60 NAUTICAL MILES COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS
AND WINDS SHOULD REACH THRESHOLD VALUES. EXPECT WINDS TO LOWER
SOMEWHAT AFTER MCS MOVE TO EAST OF REGION.

37/35/BT

.HGX...FFA ALL ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.
       SCEC 0-60 NM COASTAL WATERS.

CLL TT 064/071 059/067 057 877
IAH TT 067/074 062/067 058 877
GLS TT 071/078 069/074 069 877

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...
TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE AS THE CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON AS THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE A HALF TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT CONTINUING
THE FLOOD THREAT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTIES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND COPIOUS RAINFALL. THEREFORE A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL
EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

GMZ330-350-370-TXZ226-235-236-242100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR THE COUNTIES OF WHARTON...JACKSON...AND
MATAGORDA...INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
JUST OFF OF MATAGORDA AND JACKSON COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.