Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

CR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OFER THE WESTERN GULF
MOVING TOWARDS UPPER TX COASTAL ZONES. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
FIRING UP SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE
WEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE UPPER LOW OVER SE NM/FAR SW TX
REGION WITH IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS REGION BY MID DAY
ALONG WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET. DEEP MOISTURE
FEED WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND CURRENT GOES DERIVED DATA SHOWS
OVER 2 INCHES PWATS OVER THE GULF STARTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE STRONG
OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AS INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. WEAK CAA
WILL BE APPARENT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WESTERN ZONES AS LLVL
TROUGHING MOVES EAST W/PWATS DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE WOULD SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OVER CWFA WEDNESDAY. AFTER CONSULTING W/HPC (SEE
QPFERD/FOUS30 KWBC) WE SHALL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
OUR CWFA WEDNESDAY. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FOCUS
SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS LOUSIANA. HOWEVER...POPS SHOULD STILL BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION
FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND WILL ORIGINATE FROM CANADA.
AVN APPEARS TO BE BACKING DOWN ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS MRF. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT FRONT TO APPROACH
INLAND AREAS OF CWFA PROBABLY LATE SUNDAY. WE SHALL SEE.

NO FLAGS FOR MARINE FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN
HEIGHT WEDNESDAY APPROACHING SCA AS SOUTHLY FETCH INCREASES.

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.

CLL TT 069/078 064/080 062 685
IAH TT 070/079 067/081 066 686
GLS TT 075/080 073/080 071 687

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
OF A BRENHAM...LIVINGSTON LINE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 2 INCHES.

.TONIGHT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 INCH...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE WEST.  RAINFALL TOTALS MAY AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES.

FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.