Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 AM CDT SAT SEP 7 2002

LL DIFFUSE CENTER OF TS FAY OUT THERE JUST WEST OF BOUY019 WITH A
MOVEMENT TO THE WNW...AN INTENSE MCV MOVED ONSHORE NEAR MIDNIGHT
NEAR FREEPORT AND HAD BEEN PRODUCING EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 5+/HR
ALONG WITH NUMEROUS VERY TIGHT AND INTENSE MESO/TVS COUPLETS. ONE
REPORT OF A TORNADO NEAR LAKE JACKSON AND SECOND NEAR NEEDVILLE
ALONG WITH A FEW AND FUNNEL REPORTS. FLOODING REPORTS OUT OF FREEPORT
OF AT LEAST 40 HOMES WITH WATER INTO THEM AND OF EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
PERFORMING RESCUES. AM EXPECTING THE RAIN RATES TO LET UP IN THE
WEAKENING MCV BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM.  ONE GUST REPORT FROM PSX OF 50
KNOTS. TIDES RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...TIDE
LEVELS SHOULD SHOW LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN THESE HIGH LEVELS WITH THE
SPRING TIDE ENDING TODAY. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM INLAND TO THE W MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN 10 AM
AND 3 PM...THEN CONTINUES WEST. MOIST AXIS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH IT LIKELY SPREADING A RAIN
BAND OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR AND MOIST LL CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...HIGHER IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES PERHAPS 30 TO
40 MPH. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY AND SHOULD
PULL THIS SYSTEM WEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTRACT TONIGHT INTO A CORE RAIN
EVENT PERHAPS OVER JACKSON/LAVACA/VICTORIA COUNTIES OR VERY NEARBY.
WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE GUN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED
INTO THE REGION. AVN DRIES OUT THE REGION AS NORTHEASTERLY LL WINDS
PUSH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON THE WATER...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES...
WILL PROBABLY GET DOWN TO SCEC OR LOW SCA CRITERIA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND WARNING.

45/37/38/40

.HGX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
           PORT OCONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY ALL BUT FAR NE ZONES.
       INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING WEST CENTRAL ZONES.
       TORNADO WATCH SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 084/074 086/073 089 886
IAH TT 082/075 086/074 090 +77
GLS TT 082/077 084/077 089 +97
NE ZONES WC 644
SW ZONES NT +++

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 6 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT FOR JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...CHAMBERS...LIBERTY...HARRIS...
...FORT BEND...WALLER...AUSTIN...COLORADO AND WHARTON COUNTIES.

RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THESE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE. THE TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE.

REMEMBER A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS
SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR TORNADO WARNINGS TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.