Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Honolulu, HI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 14 2002

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF OAHU. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED MOSTLY OFFSHORE ALONG A CONVERGENCE BAND THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST THROUGH OAHU. THE BAND ITSELF IS
STATIONARY AND THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PARALLEL TO
THE BAND. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING KAUAI. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINING ISLANDS ARE MOSTLY DRY.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS WITH SMALLER LOW PRESSURE CELLS DROPPING DOWN INTO IT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ROTATING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY NEW LOW PRESSURE CELLS DROPPING DOWN IN THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SORT OF PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL WEEK
WHILE HERE IN THE ISLANDS WE WILL BE LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF MOST
OF THE ACTION. WE WILL BE WITHIN THE SOCALLED COL AREA WHERE THE
EAST/WEST RIDGE MEETS THE NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH. WE WILL BE UNDER THE
PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ENOUGH OF THE TIME TO DEVELOP
SOME WET WEATHER WHICH COULD BECOME VERY WET IF WE CONNECT WITH
SOME OF THE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROPICS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. SINCE WE ARE GOING TO REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN WHICH WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE TROPICS FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS...THE PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING
SOME VERY WET WEATHER WITHIN THE STATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS
RATHER HIGH.

SURF...THE LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS SOME NEAR GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MODERATE SURF
ALONG OUR NORTH FACING SHORES OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEN BY THURSDAY THE BIG SWELL PRESENTLY BEING GENERATED BY
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN AN INTENSE LOW THAT EARLIER WAS A
TYPHOON NAMED BAVI. THAT FETCH IS NEAR 45N 160W AT THIS TIME MOVING
EAST OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT FOR GENERATING LARGE SWELL HERE IN HAWAII SO
SOME 20 FOOTERS ON NORTHWEST FACING SHORES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ROSENDAL

.HFO...WARNINGS.....NONE
.      WATCHES......NONE
.      ADVISORIES...NONE