Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

LOOKS LIKE A BUSY EVENING WITH CONVECTION FIRING TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR THE NEAR TERM... WILL
BASE FIRST PERIOD POP ON LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
AT LEAST SOME AREA N AND W WILL HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POP. WILL
PROBABLY STICK WITH CHANCE POP FARTHER S AND E.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS ETA BRINGS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WELL
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMP
FORECAST IS MOST IN DOUBT AS COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE QUITE SHALLOW IN MODEL DATA WITH NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE
PIEDMONT AT 925/850 MB AFTER 09Z. ALSO...AM EXPECTING ONLY MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS TEMPS WILL RISE SLOWLY DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH MAV/FWC...WHICH ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT. ONLY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MTNS/SAV RIVER VALLEY TO THE S
AND W OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD START WASHING OUT LATE IN THE
DAY.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD BE GONE BY TUESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE BACK
TO DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THE AVN SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY IN CASE
FRONT IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

GSP   70  90  70  89 /  40  20  20  30
AND   70  91  71  90 /  30  30  20  30
CLT   68  87  70  89 /  30  20  20  30
HKY   67  85  68  88 /  40  20  20  30
AVL   65  88  65  86 /  50  30  20  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-022100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MORNING DATA ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAN
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MAINLY AFFECTED THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED WIND
DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL IN ROWAN...CABARRUS...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER LARGER AREAS...WITH A
FEW MORE OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...FROM DIME TO
QUARTER SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...WILL
AGAIN BE THE SEVERE STORM THREATS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCUR WITH ALMOST ALL WARM SEASON STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 40. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY TURN SOUTH AND AFFECT SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE
IN THE FORECAST AREA.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

JONES

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>014-019-
030000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...AND WERE STEADILY MOVING SOUTH TOWARD UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD INCLUDE PARTS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LARGE HAIL FROM DIME TO ABOUT QUARTER SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
FROM 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  THE STORMS
COULD ORGANIZE INTO LARGE AREAS OR LINES OF STORMS...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...AND LISTEN FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

JONES