Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TO
HUNTSVILLE AS WE APPROACH 20Z. RADAR DEPICTS A SOLID PRE FRONTAL
BAND JUST GETTING INTO THE MTNS AT PRESENT. LAPS ANALYSIS HAS BEST
AREA OF INSTABILITY WELL EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...GENERALLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. WITH ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
CONTINUED INCREASE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT FROM CLT E.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ALL LOOK DECENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ERN SECTIONS...AND WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE WIND WORDING IN THE ZONES UNLESS WE START
GETTING UPSTREAM REPORTS.

FROPA AND RAPID DRYING AFTER 06Z WILL CLEAR THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONSET...ESPECIALLY MTNS...LATE OVERNIGHT. WILL
KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BEST COLD ADVECTION AND
50 KT 850 MB JET JUST N IN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AVN TIMING ON NEXT SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FASTER LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHC POP WORDING FOR LATE MON
NIGHT AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO
TUE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING.

FOLLOWING NDFD CLUSTER COORD...WILL USE CHC POP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEXT SATURDAY AND KEEP PIEDMONT SECTIONS DRY UNDER WITH A
STUBBORN SE RIDGE BUT WITH A GRADUAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN.

FCSTID = 33
GSP   40  60  26  60 /  60   0   0   0
AND   41  61  25  60 /  60   0   0   0
CLT   44  60  25  59 /  60   0   0   0
HKY   37  55  23  56 /  60   0   0   0
AVL   35  53  23  57 /  60   0   0   0

.GSP...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES GA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES NC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES SC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GERAPETRITIS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-092100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 AM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS LINE
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DIME SIZED HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN
4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING...WHILE ADJACENT FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
SECTIONS WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY FROM 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.
DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-100400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A RATHER SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS LINE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND THEN
PIEDMONT SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...OR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85...WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE AROUND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET IN
CASE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.
DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

HG