Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

OVERALL...ZFP AND GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL
10-11 PM...CLOSER TO EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 749...TO ADJUST SVR WX
WORDING AND ALSO TO CLEAN UP EVENING PCPN MENTIONS.

SINCE EARLY EVENING...HAVE SEEN INCREASING CVRG OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDER ACRS UPSLOPE AREAS...PROGGED WELL BY 18Z ETA TO
EXPAND AND SHIFT NWD THRU LATE EVENING. UPSTREAM...SUPERCELLS
IN THE HIGHLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
FROM ERN TENN BACK INTO MS...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREK NE. EASTWARD
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE COINCIDENT WITH COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
CATCHING UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CELLS...AND AWAITING POSSIBILITY
OF WHOLE AREA DEVELOPING IN LINEAR SVR MCS OVER NEXT SVRL HOURS
AND THEN SWEEP INTO NC MTNS.

00Z AREA SNDGS INDICATING A LESSER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ON
THE ORDER OF 600-1200 J/KG...THAN WHAT SVR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING IN...BUT AN EXPECTEDLY STG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT
WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 400-450 M2/S2 TO AID IN LLVL
ORGANIZATION. STG UVVS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STG-SVR DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE NC MTNS...BUT LARGE
SCALE LIFT DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. WELL HAVE TO WAIT
& SEE HOW MUCH AND HOW STRONG OF A COOL POOL DEVELOPS TO SUPPORT
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE LATE NITE HOURS.

FCSTID = 55

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR NC/NE GA MTNS.
SC...NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-111000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM...
WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
DEADLY TORNADOES...WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS STORM SYSTEM TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 5 AM. IF THE SQUALL
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER... THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET IN
CASE ANY WATCHES OR WARNING ARE ISSUED.

HG

NCZ051-058-110600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1208 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SMOKIES SHORTLY AFTER 1 AM.
AREAS FROM AROUND ROBBINSVILLE TO BRYSON CITY WILL EXPERIENCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

55