Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION CAUSING CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
FIRST PERIOD...ONE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH TRANSIENT MID LEVEL SW TROUGH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT HAS INTIATED ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY
MORNING MIDWESTERN MCS. EXPECT LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND WILL
CARRY A LIKELY POP...WITH MAINLY EVENING WORDING...ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP HERE AND
THERE THROUGHOUT THE CWA...AND EXPECT TO CARRY AT LEAST A HIGH
CHANCE POP THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE TENN VALLEY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...CANNOT FIND EVIDENCE OF ANY MECHANISM THAT WILL ALLOW
DEVELOPING MCS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT. NOT TO MENTION THAT I
EXPECT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WORKED OVER BY EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...WILL EXTEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT END THEM AROUND
MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL ZONES SAGS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT MOISTURE LESSENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR WED AND
THUR...AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS AMPLIFYING SW TROUGH SENDS A DECENT
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

LANE

NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-SCZ001>014-019-192200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SEVERAL OF THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE WAS
CAUSING SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AT A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE IN THE PIEDMONT... FOOTHILLS.. AND MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS... HAIL... AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

LGL