Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

AT 19Z...SYNOPTIC SCALE SFC BNDRY LOOKS TO BE ACRS SRN KY WITH SVRL
SMALLER SCALE BNDRYS LOCATED SE OF THIS FEATURE. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM ALONG THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THRU THE EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE AN ISOLATED PULSE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WE WAIT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE BNDRY OVER SRN KY ATTM...TO SINK SWD.

SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WRT TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWFA...WITH AVN STILL ABT 6 OR SO HRS LATER WITH
WIND SHIFT & HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION. BASED OF CVRG OF
DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LLVL BNDRYS ...PROBABLY CAN GET AWAY WITH LIKELYS EVERYWHERE
FOR THE 12 HR POP FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL FINE TUNE THIS CLOSER TO
ZFP RELEASE TIME. ALL MDLS STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PCPN...ALONG & EAST OF VORT EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW...MAINLY EAST OF THE CWFA.

ON THURSDAY...STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SW LLVL DRY AIR ADVECTS
IN WAKE OF FRONT...BUT CONSENSUS FCST IS ADVERTISING MOST IF NOT
ALL OF CWFA REMAINING UNDER A CONSIDERABLE AMNT OF LLVL RH THRU
THE DAY...WITH EVEN AVN GENERATING PCPN AS FAR NORTH AS MY NORTHERN
NC TIER. SO PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS GOING...WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MRX/RNK ZONES. A SIMILAR DILEMMA ARISES FOR FRIDAY
AS A STRGR NORTHERN STREAM S/WV DIVES SE TOWARD THE CWFA...
DEVELOPING/ENHANCING WAVE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY.

THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE &
INCREASED LLVL UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD NOTABLY INCREASE PCPN
CVRG ACRS THE REGION. BUT AGAIN...THE DEGREE OF LLVL DRY AIR WEDGED
INTO THE CWFA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH AVN ONCE AGAIN MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING PCPN BACK NWD ACRS THE CWFA. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WHICH SUPPORTS THE GOING FCST & IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ADJACENT ZONES.

LTL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SATURDAY WITH A COMBO
OF UVVS FROM NORTHERN STREAM WAVE & SE LLVL FLOW KEEPING CHC
FOR PCPN GOING CWFA WIDE. UPPER PATTERN ACRS THE SE US WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THRU DAYS
4-7 WITH SW FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   71  83  67  81 /  50  30  30  40
AND   71  85  68  82 /  50  30  30  40
CLT   70  82  66  80 /  50  30  30  30
HKY   68  80  64  79 /  50  20  20  30
AVL   66  78  63  78 /  50  30  30  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

205 PM     HARTWELL                  GA   .88 INCH HAIL
07/10/02   HART                           NICKEL SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY COUNTY 911 ON
                                          SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TOWN.

HANDEL